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Aucas vs Macara - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda, Quito
Aucas Logo

Aucas

1 - 2
FT
Macara Logo

Macara

Our Tip

Match Events

22'
Posse F.
45' Event
Posse F.
Assist: Campana A. I.
46'
Sub
Gustavino L. In: Bolanos R.
Out: Gustavino L.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Macara in this Liga Pro matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Macara.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Aucas
30%
Draws
47%
Macara
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Macara

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Aucas lately — more wins on the board than Macara.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Liga Pro form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Macara have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Aucas Clean Sheet 20%
Macara Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aucas Macara
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 16 15
Draws 5 6
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 1.17 1.37
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 19, 2026 Liga Pro
Aucas vs Macara
1:2
Jul 26, 2026 Liga Pro
Aucas vs Macara
1:4
Apr 5, 2026 Liga Pro
Macara vs Aucas
0:1
Dec 20, 2025 Liga Pro
Aucas vs Macara
0:2
Oct 5, 2025 Liga Pro
Macara vs Aucas
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aucas Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Macara Compare

Top Goalscorer Posse F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Campana A. I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aucas 32 / 100
Macara 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aucas Macara

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Aucas found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).

Macara has conceded goals in 63% of their last 30 outings.

Aucas went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Aucas VS Macara
0.75 Goals Scored 1.38
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
38% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Aucas

(Home)
19 Sept
Aucas
1 : 2
Macara
12 Sept
Manta
0 : 0
Aucas
07 Sept
Aucas
1 : 1
Barcelona SC
03 Sept
U. Catolica
1 : 1
Aucas
30 Aug
Aucas
1 : 0
Libertad
Page 1 of 6

Macara

(Away)
19 Sept
Aucas
1 : 2
Macara
13 Sept
Macara
1 : 0
Emelec
05 Sept
Independiente del Valle
3 : 1
Macara
02 Sept
Macara
4 : 3
Manta
30 Aug
Orense
1 : 2
Macara
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Independiente del Valle 30 24 2 4 73:33 74
2 Macara 31 16 6 9 43:34 54
3 U. Catolica 31 14 9 8 52:29 51
4 Aucas 31 14 8 9 34:30 50
5 LDU Quito 31 14 7 10 33:25 49
6 Barcelona SC 30 11 11 8 32:25 44
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)
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