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Auckland City vs Coastal Spirit

New Zealand New Zealand

National League Kiwitea Street, Auckland
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Match Events

57' Event
Ilich M.
77' Event
Gray C.
85' Event
Bevan M.

AI Match Summary

The National League game between Auckland City and Coastal Spirit finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Auckland City.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Auckland City
6%
Draws
4%
Coastal Spirit
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Auckland City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Auckland City come out ahead of Coastal Spirit on wins alone.
  • Model gives Auckland City a 90% chance of winning this.
  • Regular National League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Auckland City Clean Sheet 20%
Coastal Spirit Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Auckland City Coastal Spirit
Matches Played 38 27
Wins 22 8
Draws 5 5
Losses 11 14
Goals Scored 2 0.5
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 6, 2025 National League
Auckland City vs Coastal Spirit
3:0
Nov 24, 2024 National League
Auckland City vs Coastal Spirit
5:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Auckland City Compare

Top Goalscorer Ilich M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gray C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Coastal Spirit Compare

Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Auckland City 85 / 100
Coastal Spirit 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Auckland City Coastal Spirit

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AKL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Auckland City found the back of the net in 84% of recent matches (38 games).

These sides typically produce 4.50 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Auckland City stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Coastal Spirit has conceded goals in 70% of their last 27 outings.

Scoring Trends

Auckland City VS Coastal Spirit
2 Goals Scored 0.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Auckland City

(Home)
04 Jul
Auckland City
3 : 0
Takapuna Afc
13 Dec
Wellington Olympic
2 : 3
Auckland City
06 Dec
Auckland City
3 : 0
Coastal Spirit
30 Nov
Western Springs
1 : 3
Auckland City
22 Nov
Auckland City
2 : 0
Wellington Phoenix 2
Page 1 of 8

Coastal Spirit

(Away)
05 Mar
Coastal Spirit
0 : 0
Christchurch
26 Feb
Coastal Spirit
1 : 5
Nomads United
06 Dec
Auckland City
3 : 0
Coastal Spirit
23 Nov
Coastal Spirit
1 : 0
Western Springs
15 Nov
Wellington Phoenix 2
1 : 0
Coastal Spirit
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Wellington Olympic1070323:1421
2Auckland City1062219:1420
3Miramar1061325:1419
4Auckland FC 21053217:1018
5Western Springs1051416:1316
6Birkenhead1050520:2115
7Christchurch1042416:1914
8Wellington Phoenix 21031618:2110
9Western Suburbs1031619:2110
10Auckland United1022611:198
11Coastal Spirit102175:237
Promotion - National League (Grand Final)