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Auckland United vs Napier City - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

New Zealand New Zealand

National League
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Lack S.
16' Event
Mendoza W.
23' Event
Mendoza W.

AI Match Summary

The National League game between Auckland United and Napier City finished 7-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Auckland United.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Auckland United
20%
Draws
40%
Napier City
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Auckland United carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Auckland United a 40% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Auckland United here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 34%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79%
Auckland United Clean Sheet 10%
Napier City Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Auckland United Napier City
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 10
Draws 7 5
Losses 12 15
Goals Scored 1.93 1.93
Goals Conceded 1.73 2.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 4, 2026 National League
Auckland United vs Napier City
7:1
Nov 18, 2023 National League
Auckland United vs Napier City
3:3
Nov 26, 2022 National League
Auckland United vs Napier City
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Auckland United Compare

Top Goalscorer Mendoza W.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Beer J.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Napier City Compare

Top Goalscorer Lack S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Auckland United 56 / 100
Napier City 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Auckland United Napier City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Auckland United Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Napier City has conceded goals in 87% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 6.33 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Auckland United scored in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Auckland United has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Auckland United VS Napier City
1.13 Goals Scored 2
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.86
75% Over 1.5 86%
75% Over 2.5 71%
25% Over 3.5 43%

Recent Form & Match History

Auckland United

(Home)
04 Oct
Auckland United
7 : 1
Napier City
26 Sept
Wellington Phoenix 2
1 : 1
Auckland United
26 Jul
Nelson Suburbs FC
2 : 1
Auckland United
04 Jul
Auckland United
3 : 1
Cambridge
07 Dec
Auckland FC 2
3 : 0
Auckland United
Page 1 of 6

Napier City

(Away)
04 Oct
Auckland United
7 : 1
Napier City
26 Sept
Napier City
1 : 1
Miramar
16 Aug
Cashmere Technical
2 : 1
Napier City
26 Jul
Hibiscus Coast
2 : 5
Napier City
04 Jul
Petone
0 : 4
Napier City
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Miramar 3 2 1 0 7:3 7
2 Cashmere Technical 3 2 0 1 15:2 6
3 Auckland United 3 1 2 0 10:4 5
4 Auckland City 2 1 1 0 6:4 4
5 Wellington Olympic 3 1 1 1 6:6 4
6 Ferrymead Bays 3 1 1 1 3:5 4
7 Napier City 3 1 1 1 4:9 4
8 Birkenhead 2 1 0 1 1:4 3
9 Auckland FC 2 3 0 1 2 5:7 1
10 Eastern Suburbs 2 0 1 1 2:4 1
11 Wellington Phoenix 2 3 0 1 2 1:12 1
Promotion - National League (Grand Final)