Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Auckland United vs Wellington Phoenix 2

New Zealand New Zealand

National League 2023
Our Tip

Match Events

26' Event
Rudland J.
42' Event
Zambrano N.
43' Event
Tollervey J.

AI Match Summary

Auckland United play Wellington Phoenix 2 in the National League 2023. It looks like a close match. Recently, Auckland United averaged 1.38 goals scored and 1.63 conceded. Wellington Phoenix 2 averaged 1.13 goals scored and 2 conceded. In past meetings, Auckland United won 0, Wellington Phoenix 2 won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Oct 18, 2025 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.69 for Auckland United and 1.38 for Wellington Phoenix 2. This points to a Auckland United double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Auckland United
44%
Draws
20%
Wellington Phoenix 2
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Auckland United demonstrates higher offensive output (1.38 avg goals) than Wellington Phoenix 2 (1.13 avg goals).
  • Model projects a tightly contested fixture with a 44% draw probability.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in National League 2023 provide steady trend data.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
Auckland United Clean Sheet 17%
Wellington Phoenix 2 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Auckland United Wellington Phoenix 2
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 12
Draws 6 2
Losses 12 16
Goals Scored 1.38 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.63 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 18, 2025 National League
Auckland United vs Wellington Phoenix 2
0:0
Nov 5, 2023 National League
Auckland United vs Wellington Phoenix 2
3:4
Oct 8, 2022 National League
Wellington Phoenix 2 vs Auckland United
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Auckland United Compare

Top Goalscorer Zambrano N.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Redfearn J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Wellington Phoenix 2 Compare

Top Goalscorer Rudland J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Tollervey J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Auckland United 36 / 100
Wellington Phoenix 2 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Auckland United Wellington Phoenix 2

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick WEL Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Auckland United scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Wellington Phoenix 2 let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.67 goals.

Auckland United went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Wellington Phoenix 2 lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Auckland United VS Wellington Phoenix 2
1.38 Goals Scored 1.13
1.63 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Wellington Olympic972034:1523
2Auckland City970219:1221
3Christchurch951318:1616
4Eastern Suburbs943223:1115
5Manurewa941416:2013
6Cashmere Technical941424:2413
7Auckland United924315:1710
8Wellington Phoenix 2930619:249
9Napier City921613:267
10Petone90186:221