Sport Picks

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Auckland United vs Wellington Phoenix 2

New Zealand New Zealand

National League Keith Hay Park
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Match Events

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AI Match Summary

Auckland United host Wellington Phoenix 2 in the National League. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Wellington Phoenix 2 have shipped 2 goals a game lately, while Auckland United have conceded 1.63 and scored 1.38. Past meetings favor Wellington Phoenix 2 slightly — 0-1-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Oct 18, 2025, ending 0:0. Model xG sits at 1.69 vs 1.38, favoring Auckland United. Auckland United in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Auckland United
44%
Draws
20%
Wellington Phoenix 2
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Auckland United demonstrates higher offensive output (1.38 avg goals) than Wellington Phoenix 2 (1.13 avg goals).
  • Model projects a tightly contested fixture with a 44% draw probability.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in National League provide steady trend data.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
Auckland United Clean Sheet 17%
Wellington Phoenix 2 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Auckland United Wellington Phoenix 2
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 12
Draws 6 2
Losses 12 16
Goals Scored 1.38 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.63 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 18, 2025 National League
Auckland United vs Wellington Phoenix 2
0:0
Nov 5, 2023 National League
Auckland United vs Wellington Phoenix 2
3:4
Oct 8, 2022 National League
Wellington Phoenix 2 vs Auckland United
2:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Auckland United 36 / 100
Wellington Phoenix 2 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Auckland United Wellington Phoenix 2

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick WEL Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Auckland United scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Wellington Phoenix 2 let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.67 goals.

Auckland United went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Wellington Phoenix 2 lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Auckland United VS Wellington Phoenix 2
1.38 Goals Scored 1.13
1.63 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Wellington Olympic1070323:1421
2Auckland City1062219:1420
3Miramar1061325:1419
4Auckland FC 21053217:1018
5Western Springs1051416:1316
6Birkenhead1050520:2115
7Christchurch1042416:1914
8Wellington Phoenix 21031618:2110
9Western Suburbs1031619:2110
10Auckland United1022611:198
11Coastal Spirit102175:237