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Audace Cerignola vs Casarano

Italy Italy

Serie C - Group C 2025/2026 Stadio Domenico Monterisi, Cerignola
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Gambale D.
(Penalty)
34'
Bachini M.
44' Event
Leonetti V.

AI Match Summary

Audace Cerignola in this Serie C - Group C 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Audace Cerignola.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Audace Cerignola
22%
Draws
60%
Casarano
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Casarano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Audace Cerignola lately — more wins on the board than Casarano.
  • Model gives Casarano a 60% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Serie C - Group C 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 93%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Audace Cerignola Clean Sheet 10%
Casarano Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Audace Cerignola Casarano
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 12
Draws 9 6
Losses 8 12
Goals Scored 1.14 2.38
Goals Conceded 1.71 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.14 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.71 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 20, 2026 Serie C - Group C
Audace Cerignola vs Casarano
2:1
Oct 29, 2025 Coppa Italia Serie C
Audace Cerignola vs Casarano
2:1
Oct 12, 2025 Serie C - Group C
Casarano vs Audace Cerignola
3:0
Feb 13, 2022 Serie D - Group H
Audace Cerignola vs Casarano
1:0
Oct 6, 2021 Serie D - Group H
Casarano vs Audace Cerignola
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Audace Cerignola Compare

Top Goalscorer Gasbarro A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.88
Avg xA / game 0.57

Casarano Compare

Top Goalscorer Leonetti V.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.32

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Audace Cerignola 18 / 100
Casarano 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Audace Cerignola Casarano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CAS Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Audace Cerignola scored in 83% of their last 30 outings.

Casarano's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Audace Cerignola remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Audace Cerignola VS Casarano
1.14 Goals Scored 2.38
1.71 Goals Conceded 0.75
86% Over 1.5 100%
43% Over 2.5 63%
43% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Audace Cerignola

(Home)
03 May
Crotone
1 : 1
Audace Cerignola
26 Apr
Benevento
2 : 2
Audace Cerignola
19 Apr
Audace Cerignola
1 : 1
Altamura
12 Apr
Casertana
4 : 1
Audace Cerignola
06 Apr
Audace Cerignola
1 : 1
Latina
Page 1 of 6

Casarano

(Away)
20 May
Union Brescia
0 : 0
Casarano
17 May
Casarano
0 : 3
Union Brescia
13 May
Renate
0 : 3
Casarano
10 May
Casarano
0 : 2
Renate
06 May
Cosenza
1 : 5
Casarano
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Benevento38257674:2882
2Catania381913654:2570
3Salernitana38209950:4269
4Cosenza381910958:4067
5Casertana381991055:4466
6Crotone381871359:4061
7Monopoli3815111239:4156
8Casarano381681456:5756
9Audace Cerignola3814121250:5454
10Potenza3812131354:5649
11Atalanta U233811121553:5045
12Altamura3811121532:4945
13Latina3810121635:4442
14Cavese389151436:4242
15Picerno389131643:5540
16Sorrento389121739:5539
17Giugliano389101935:5237
18Foggia38692328:6027
19Siracusa389101948:5726
20Trapani3813101547:5424
Promotion - Serie B (Main)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)