Sport Picks

Italy

Serie C - Group C Stadio Domenico Monterisi

Sorrento

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Risks Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Audace Cerignola play Sorrento in the Serie C - Group C. It looks like a close match. Recently, Audace Cerignola averaged 1.45 goals scored and 1.45 conceded. Sorrento averaged 1.13 goals scored and 1.59 conceded. In past meetings, Audace Cerignola won 4, Sorrento won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 15, 2026 ended 3:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.88 for Audace Cerignola and 1.56 for Sorrento. This points to a Audace Cerignola double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%

Audace Cerignola

19%

Draws

30%

Sorrento

Draw rate projection: 19% Favored: Audace Cerignola

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

79% / High Confidence

Audace Cerignola picked up more points recently compared to Sorrento.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.88 vs 1.56 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 53%

Over 3.5 Goals 32%

Over 4.5 Goals 16%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 59%

Audace Cerignola Clean Sheet 15%

Sorrento Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 74%

Second Half Goal 78%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Audace Cerignola	Sorrento
Matches Played	31	32
Wins	13	9
Draws	9	8
Losses	9	15
Goals Scored	1.45	1.13
Goals Conceded	1.45	1.59
Expected Goals (xG)	1.63	1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.13	2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2026 Serie C - Group C

Audace Cerignola vs Sorrento

Possession: 60% - 45% Cards: 4 - 2

3:2

Nov 9, 2025 Serie C - Group C

Sorrento vs Audace Cerignola

Possession: 43% - 53% Cards: 2 - 2

1:2

Feb 23, 2025 Serie C - Group C

Sorrento vs Audace Cerignola

Possession: 52% - 57% Cards: 0 - 1

0:1

Oct 11, 2024 Serie C - Group C

Audace Cerignola vs Sorrento

Possession: 46% - 60% Cards: 4 - 1

2:0

Jan 14, 2024 Serie C - Group C

Audace Cerignola vs Sorrento

Possession: 53% - 55% Cards: 3 - 0

1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Audace Cerignola Compare

Top Goalscorer Gambale D.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Ruggiero Z.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.81

Sorrento Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91

Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Audace Cerignola 49 / 100

Sorrento 29 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Audace Cerignola Sorrento

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Audace Cerignola or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +18.8%

2.33

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.9%

2.13

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Audace Cerignola attacking → ← attacking Sorrento

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Audace Cerignola scored in 84% of their last 31 games.

Sorrento let in goals in 84% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Audace Cerignola went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Sorrento lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate

Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

48 Points in last 5 35

1.63 Goals expected (xG) 1.00

2.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.13

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Benevento	38	25	7	6	74:28	82
2	Catania	38	19	13	6	54:25	70
3	Salernitana	38	20	9	9	50:42	69
4	Cosenza	38	19	10	9	58:40	67
5	Casertana	38	19	9	10	55:44	66
6	Crotone	38	18	7	13	59:40	61
7	Monopoli	38	15	11	12	39:41	56
8	Casarano	38	16	8	14	56:57	56
9	Audace Cerignola	38	14	12	12	50:54	54
10	Potenza	38	12	13	13	54:56	49
11	Atalanta U23	38	11	12	15	53:50	45
12	Altamura	38	11	12	15	32:49	45
13	Latina	38	10	12	16	35:44	42
14	Cavese	38	9	15	14	36:42	42
15	Picerno	38	9	13	16	43:55	40
16	Sorrento	38	9	12	17	39:55	39
17	Giugliano	38	9	10	19	35:52	37
18	Foggia	38	6	9	23	28:60	27
19	Siracusa	38	9	10	19	48:57	26
20	Trapani	38	13	10	15	47:54	24