Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Augsburg vs 1. FC Koln

Germany Germany

Bundesliga 2025/2026 WWK Arena
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Augsburg play 1. FC Koln in the Bundesliga 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Augsburg averaged 1.17 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. 1. FC Koln averaged 1.37 goals scored and 1.97 conceded. In past meetings, Augsburg won 1, 1. FC Koln won 1, and they drew 3. Their last match on Feb 27, 2026 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.63 for Augsburg and 1.81 for 1. FC Koln. This points to a Augsburg double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Augsburg
35%
Draws
25%
1. FC Koln
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Augsburg

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Augsburg picked up more points recently compared to 1. FC Koln.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.63 vs 1.81 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 86%
Over 2.5 Goals 55%
Over 3.5 Goals 33%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Augsburg Clean Sheet 11%
1. FC Koln Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 77%
Second Half Goal 82%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Augsburg 1. FC Koln
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 5
Draws 8 10
Losses 12 15
Goals Scored 1.17 1.37
Goals Conceded 1.67 1.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 27, 2026 Bundesliga
Augsburg vs 1. FC Koln
2:0
Oct 18, 2025 Bundesliga
1. FC Koln vs Augsburg
1:1
Mar 31, 2024 Bundesliga
Augsburg vs 1. FC Koln
1:1
Nov 4, 2023 Bundesliga
1. FC Koln vs Augsburg
1:1
Apr 8, 2023 Bundesliga
Augsburg vs 1. FC Koln
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Augsburg Compare

Top Goalscorer Ribeiro R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Claude-Maurice A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

1. FC Koln Compare

Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Augsburg 38 / 100
1. FC Koln 25 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Augsburg 1. FC Koln

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Augsburg or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +25.2%
3.13
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.2%
2.04
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Augsburg attacking → ← attacking 1. FC Koln

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Augsburg scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

1. FC Koln let in goals in 97% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Augsburg went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

1. FC Koln lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

38 Points in last 5 25
1.50 Goals expected (xG) 1.75
1.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Bayern Munich342851122:3689
2Dortmund34227570:3473
3RB Leipzig34205966:4765
4VfB Stuttgart34188871:4962
5Hoffenheim34187965:5261
6Bayer Leverkusen34178968:4759
7Freiburg341381351:5747
8Eintracht Frankfurt3411111261:6544
9Augsburg341271545:6143
10Mainz3410101444:5340
11Union Berlin341091544:5839
12B. Monchengladbach349111442:5338
13Hamburger349111440:5438
141. FC Koln347111649:6332
15Werder Bremen34881837:6032
16Wolfsburg34781945:6929
17Heidenheim34682041:7226
18St. Pauli34682029:6026