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Augsburg vs Bayern Munich - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Germany Germany

Bundesliga WWK Arena, Augsburg
Sat, Oct 10, 2026
VS
01:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Augsburg host Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. Bayern Munich have shipped 1.18 goals a game lately, while Augsburg have conceded 1.69 and scored 2.21. Head-to-head, Augsburg have won 1 to Bayern Munich's 4, with 0 draws. They last met on Jan 24, 2026, ending 1:2. Model xG sits at 2.38 vs 2.31, favoring Bayern Munich. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-3.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Augsburg
30%
Draws
43%
Bayern Munich
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Bayern Munich

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Bayern Munich lately — more wins on the board than Augsburg.
  • Win probability leans Bayern Munich's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Bundesliga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 85%).
  • Bayern Munich have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 85%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.4%
Augsburg Clean Sheet 10%
Bayern Munich Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Augsburg Bayern Munich
Matches Played 29 38
Wins 13 30
Draws 8 5
Losses 8 3
Goals Scored 2.21 3.37
Goals Conceded 1.69 1.18
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 2.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 24, 2026 Bundesliga
Bayern Munich vs Augsburg
1:2
Aug 30, 2025 Bundesliga
Augsburg vs Bayern Munich
2:3
Apr 4, 2025 Bundesliga
Augsburg vs Bayern Munich
1:3
Nov 22, 2024 Bundesliga
Bayern Munich vs Augsburg
3:0
Jan 27, 2024 Bundesliga
Augsburg vs Bayern Munich
2:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Augsburg 10 / 100
Bayern Munich 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Augsburg Bayern Munich

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bayern Munich Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:3
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Augsburg found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (29 games).

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Bayern Munich has conceded goals in 71% of their last 38 outings.

Recent resilience: Augsburg stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Augsburg VS Bayern Munich
3.88 Goals Scored 3.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 88%
75% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Augsburg

(Home)
02 Oct
Augsburg
2 : 2
Hertha Berlin
19 Sept
Werder Bremen
3 : 2
Augsburg
12 Sept
Augsburg
2 : 2
Bayer Leverkusen
06 Sept
Eintracht Frankfurt
1 : 4
Augsburg
30 Aug
Augsburg
3 : 0
Schalke
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Bayern Munich

(Away)
18 Sept
Bayern Munich
7 : 0
Union Berlin
13 Sept
Elversberg
1 : 2
Bayern Munich
10 Sept
Bayern Munich
5 : 0
Bodo/Glimt
05 Sept
Schalke
0 : 0
Bayern Munich
02 Sept
VfL Osnabruck
1 : 4
Bayern Munich
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Dortmund 4 4 0 0 9:2 12
2 Bayern Munich 4 3 1 0 14:2 10
3 Freiburg 4 3 1 0 12:3 10
4 Augsburg 4 2 1 1 11:6 7
5 Bayer Leverkusen 4 2 1 1 10:5 7
6 Mainz 4 2 1 1 10:6 7
7 Elversberg 4 2 1 1 8:7 7
8 Werder Bremen 4 2 1 1 8:8 7
9 RB Leipzig 4 2 0 2 9:5 6
10 Eintracht Frankfurt 4 1 2 1 9:10 5
11 Schalke 4 1 2 1 3:4 5
12 Paderborn 4 1 1 2 3:5 4
13 1. FC Koln 4 1 1 2 6:9 4
14 Hoffenheim 4 1 0 3 7:10 3
15 VfB Stuttgart 4 1 0 3 6:9 3
16 Hamburger 4 1 0 3 2:13 3
17 Union Berlin 4 0 1 3 4:17 1
18 B. Monchengladbach 4 0 0 4 6:16 0
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Bundesliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. Bundesliga 2027/2028 (Main)