Sport Picks

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Aurora F.C. vs Deportivo Achuapa

Guatemala Guatemala

Liga Nacional 2025/2026 Estadio Guillermo Slowing, Amatitlan
Our Tip

Match Events

45'
Cardona L.
46'
Sub
Bol E. In: de Leon I.
Out: Bol E.
46'
Sub
Motta P. In: Alvarez J.
Out: Motta P.

AI Match Summary

Aurora F.C. in this Liga Nacional 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Aurora F.C..

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Aurora F.C.
30%
Draws
34%
Deportivo Achuapa
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Aurora F.C.

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Deportivo Achuapa at 0.5 per game, Aurora F.C. at 0.38.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Aurora F.C. taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Aurora F.C. have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Aurora F.C. Clean Sheet 68%
Deportivo Achuapa Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aurora F.C. Deportivo Achuapa
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 7 7
Draws 8 8
Losses 14 15
Goals Scored 0.38 0.5
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 0.38 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 29, 2026 Liga Nacional
Aurora F.C. vs Deportivo Achuapa
1:0
Feb 7, 2026 Liga Nacional
Deportivo Achuapa vs Aurora F.C.
2:1
Oct 18, 2025 Liga Nacional
Aurora F.C. vs Deportivo Achuapa
2:1
Aug 10, 2025 Liga Nacional
Deportivo Achuapa vs Aurora F.C.
1:2
Apr 4, 2001 Liga Nacional
Aurora F.C. vs Deportivo Achuapa
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aurora F.C. Compare

Top Goalscorer Diaz A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.29
Avg xA / game 0.19

Deportivo Achuapa Compare

Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aurora F.C. 46 / 100
Deportivo Achuapa 44 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aurora F.C. Deportivo Achuapa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Deportivo Achuapa conceded in 73% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Away concern: Deportivo Achuapa has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Aurora F.C. scored in 52% of their last 29 games.

Scoring Trends

Aurora F.C. VS Deportivo Achuapa
0.38 Goals Scored 0.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.75
38% Over 1.5 63%
13% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Aurora F.C.

(Home)
26 Apr
Aurora F.C.
1 : 1
Mictlan
19 Apr
Deportivo Mixco
4 : 0
Aurora F.C.
15 Apr
Aurora F.C.
0 : 1
Marquense
11 Apr
Comunicaciones
1 : 0
Aurora F.C.
04 Apr
Aurora F.C.
0 : 2
Antigua
Page 1 of 6

Deportivo Achuapa

(Away)
26 Apr
Deportivo Achuapa
2 : 2
Antigua
19 Apr
Coban Imperial
3 : 1
Deportivo Achuapa
17 Apr
Xelaju
3 : 0
Deportivo Achuapa
12 Apr
Deportivo Achuapa
1 : 0
Malacateco
07 Apr
Guastatoya
3 : 1
Deportivo Achuapa
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Xelaju22116534:1939
2Municipal22115632:2138
3Deportivo Mixco22106630:2636
4Comunicaciones22112928:2635
5Antigua2297634:2934
6Coban Imperial2288629:2232
7Guastatoya2287729:2131
8Marquense22931025:2930
9Mictlan2276925:3627
10Malacateco22641219:2522
11Aurora F.C.22481014:3020
12Deportivo Achuapa22541317:3219
Promotion - Liga Nacional 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)