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Aurrera de Vitoria vs Alaves C - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Our Tip

Match Events

30' Event
Martinez M.
46' Event
Beobide L.
52' Event
Aostri B.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 4 game between Aurrera de Vitoria and Alaves C finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Aurrera de Vitoria.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Aurrera de Vitoria
15%
Draws
40%
Alaves C
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Aurrera de Vitoria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Alaves C haven't matched Aurrera de Vitoria's recent run of results.
  • Alaves C are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 4 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36.400000000000006%
Aurrera de Vitoria Clean Sheet 18%
Alaves C Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aurrera de Vitoria Alaves C
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 15 13
Draws 5 7
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 1.38 2.03
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 19, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Aurrera de Vitoria vs Alaves C
2:1
Apr 1, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Alaves C vs Aurrera de Vitoria
1:1
Nov 23, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Aurrera de Vitoria vs Alaves C
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aurrera de Vitoria Compare

Top Goalscorer Martinez M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Aostri B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Alaves C Compare

Top Goalscorer Beobide L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aurrera de Vitoria 23 / 100
Alaves C 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aurrera de Vitoria Alaves C

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alaves C Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aurrera de Vitoria scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Alaves C's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Aurrera de Vitoria went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Aurrera de Vitoria VS Alaves C
2 Goals Scored 1.88
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Aurrera de Vitoria

(Home)
10 Oct
Leioa
4 : 0
Aurrera de Vitoria
03 Oct
Aurrera de Vitoria
2 : 1
SD Erandio
26 Sept
Sodupe
0 : 3
Aurrera de Vitoria
19 Sept
Aurrera de Vitoria
2 : 1
Alaves C
12 Sept
Aurrera de Vitoria
1 : 1
Touring KE
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Alaves C

(Away)
10 Oct
SD Erandio
0 : 2
Alaves C
04 Oct
Alaves C
5 : 1
Sodupe
26 Sept
Alaves C
1 : 2
Touring KE
19 Sept
Aurrera de Vitoria
2 : 1
Alaves C
12 Sept
Alaves C
3 : 0
Amurrio Club
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Aurrera de Vitoria 6 4 1 1 10:8 13
2 Leioa 6 3 3 0 16:6 12
3 Derio 6 3 3 0 8:3 12
4 Real Sociedad C 6 3 2 1 11:8 11
5 Alaves C 6 3 1 2 13:6 10
6 Pasaia 5 3 1 1 7:6 10
7 San Ignacio 6 2 2 2 10:8 8
8 Touring KE 6 2 2 2 7:6 8
9 UD Aretxabaleta 5 2 2 1 4:3 8
10 Sodupe 6 2 2 2 5:9 8
11 SCD Durango 6 1 4 1 9:9 7
12 Beasain 6 2 1 3 7:8 7
13 Lagun Onak 6 2 1 3 6:9 7
14 SD Erandio 6 2 0 4 6:8 6
15 Santurtzi 6 2 0 4 3:7 6
16 Eibar C 6 1 2 3 9:10 5
17 Real Union B 6 1 2 3 7:12 5
18 Amurrio Club 6 0 1 5 1:13 1
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 (Play Offs)