Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4

UD Aretxabaleta

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Aurrera de Vitoria play UD Aretxabaleta in the Tercera RFEF - Group 4. It looks like a close match. Recently, Aurrera de Vitoria averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. UD Aretxabaleta averaged 1.63 goals scored and 1.93 conceded. In past meetings, Aurrera de Vitoria won 1, UD Aretxabaleta won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Feb 22, 2026 ended 5:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.56 for Aurrera de Vitoria and 1.25 for UD Aretxabaleta. This points to a Aurrera de Vitoria double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%

Aurrera de Vitoria

28%

Draws

32%

UD Aretxabaleta

Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Aurrera de Vitoria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence

Aurrera de Vitoria picked up more points recently compared to UD Aretxabaleta.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.56 vs 1.25 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 58%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 78%

Over 2.5 Goals 58%

Over 3.5 Goals 35%

Over 4.5 Goals 17%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 59%

Aurrera de Vitoria Clean Sheet 19%

UD Aretxabaleta Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 70%

Second Half Goal 74%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Aurrera de Vitoria	UD Aretxabaleta
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	13	11
Draws	6	5
Losses	11	14
Goals Scored	1.2	1.63
Goals Conceded	1.2	1.93
Expected Goals (xG)	0.88	1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.13	2.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Aurrera de Vitoria vs UD Aretxabaleta

Possession: 54% - 52% Cards: 2 - 1

5:1

Oct 12, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

UD Aretxabaleta vs Aurrera de Vitoria

Possession: 44% - 48% Cards: 1 - 3

4:2

Apr 23, 2016 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Aurrera de Vitoria vs UD Aretxabaleta

Possession: 50% - 41% Cards: 1 - 0

3:3

Nov 29, 2015 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

UD Aretxabaleta vs Aurrera de Vitoria

Possession: 60% - 56% Cards: 1 - 0

1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aurrera de Vitoria Compare

Top Goalscorer Diaz Hortelano N.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Rodriguez E.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.44

UD Aretxabaleta Compare

Top Goalscorer Salamanca I.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aurrera de Vitoria 40 / 100

UD Aretxabaleta 31 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Aurrera de Vitoria UD Aretxabaleta

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Aurrera de Vitoria or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +25.2%

3.13

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +11.4%

1.92

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Aurrera de Vitoria attacking → ← attacking UD Aretxabaleta

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aurrera de Vitoria scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

UD Aretxabaleta let in goals in 90% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 5.00 goals.

Aurrera de Vitoria went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

UD Aretxabaleta lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

45 Points in last 5 38

0.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.38

1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.25

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Portugalete	34	24	6	4	70:29	78
2	Leioa	34	18	7	9	50:34	61
3	Derio	34	17	7	10	54:40	58
4	Lagun Onak	34	17	6	11	54:34	57
5	Touring KE	34	16	9	9	47:35	57
6	Real Sociedad C	34	17	4	13	48:39	55
7	San Ignacio	34	16	7	11	37:27	55
8	Aurrera de Vitoria	34	16	6	12	42:41	54
9	Alaves C	34	15	8	11	57:40	53
10	UD Aretxabaleta	34	13	6	15	56:61	45
11	SCD Durango	34	11	11	12	35:36	44
12	Santurtzi	34	9	12	13	32:45	39
13	Eibar C	34	9	9	16	44:53	36
14	Pasaia	34	9	9	16	26:46	36
15	Anorga	34	11	4	19	37:59	34
16	Zamudio	34	9	6	19	42:59	33
17	Zarautz KE	34	8	6	20	30:60	30
18	SD Deusto	34	6	7	21	26:49	25