Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Aurrera Ondarroa vs Tolosa

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2021/2022
Aurrera Ondarroa Logo

Aurrera Ondarroa

3 - 0
FT
Tolosa Logo

Tolosa

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Aurrera Ondarroa in this Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2021/2022 matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Aurrera Ondarroa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Aurrera Ondarroa
15%
Draws
0%
Tolosa
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Aurrera Ondarroa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Tolosa at 1.23 per game, Aurrera Ondarroa at 0.9.
  • Model gives Aurrera Ondarroa a 85% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2021/2022 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Aurrera Ondarroa Clean Sheet 68%
Tolosa Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aurrera Ondarroa Tolosa
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 6 6
Draws 8 3
Losses 17 21
Goals Scored 0.9 1.23
Goals Conceded 1.52 2.2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 19, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Aurrera Ondarroa vs Tolosa
3:0
Sep 15, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Tolosa vs Aurrera Ondarroa
0:2
Feb 27, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Tolosa vs Aurrera Ondarroa
2:1
Dec 5, 2020 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Aurrera Ondarroa vs Tolosa
1:1
Apr 22, 2017 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Aurrera Ondarroa vs Tolosa
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aurrera Ondarroa 77 / 100
Tolosa 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aurrera Ondarroa Tolosa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aurrera Ondarroa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tolosa let in goals in 90% of their last 30 matches.

Away concern: Tolosa has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Aurrera Ondarroa found the back of the net in 52% of recent matches (31 games).

Scoring Trends

Aurrera Ondarroa VS -
1 Goals Scored 0
2.25 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Aurrera Ondarroa

(Home)
11 May
Urduliz FT
1 : 3
Aurrera Ondarroa
05 May
Aurrera Ondarroa
1 : 2
Basconia
01 May
Anorga
3 : 2
Aurrera Ondarroa
27 Apr
Aurrera Ondarroa
1 : 3
Alaves C
20 Apr
SD Deusto
3 : 0
Aurrera Ondarroa
Page 1 of 7

Tolosa

(Away)
29 Apr
Tolosa
3 : 4
Santutxu FC
23 Apr
SD Deusto
3 : 1
Tolosa
13 Apr
Tolosa
2 : 3
Lagun Onak
09 Apr
CD Vitoria
3 : 2
Tolosa
02 Apr
Tolosa
1 : 4
Amurrio Club
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Alaves B 38 21 13 4 72:31 76
2 Beasain 38 19 13 6 65:36 70
3 Portugalete 38 19 13 6 60:33 70
4 Barakaldo 38 20 9 9 64:46 69
5 Basconia 38 18 11 9 45:32 65
6 CD Vitoria 38 16 11 11 55:49 59
7 San Ignacio 38 17 7 14 57:48 58
8 SCD Durango 38 13 18 7 42:29 57
9 Leioa 38 15 11 12 55:38 56
10 Anaitasuna FT 38 14 10 14 48:49 52
11 Lagun Onak 38 13 12 13 42:44 51
12 Pasaia 38 13 11 14 36:43 50
13 SD Deusto 38 11 16 11 42:40 49
14 Urduliz FT 38 12 9 17 39:57 45
15 Aurrera Ondarroa 38 10 8 20 36:55 38
16 Santutxu FC 38 8 14 16 42:60 38
17 Uritarra 38 10 8 20 38:52 38
18 Amurrio Club 38 8 13 17 39:45 37
19 Beti Gazte 38 6 8 24 34:80 26
20 Tolosa 38 7 5 26 43:87 26
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2021/2022 (Play Offs)