Sport Picks

USA

MLS Q2 Stadium

Houston Dynamo

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Risks Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Austin FC play Houston Dynamo in the MLS. Houston Dynamo are favorites here. Recently, Austin FC averaged 0.97 goals scored and 1.9 conceded. Houston Dynamo averaged 1.69 goals scored and 1.59 conceded. In past meetings, Austin FC won 2, Houston Dynamo won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 26, 2026 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.13 for Austin FC and 1.88 for Houston Dynamo. This points to a Houston Dynamo double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

25%

Austin FC

18%

Draws

57%

Houston Dynamo

Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: Houston Dynamo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

84% / High Confidence

Austin FC picked up more points recently compared to Houston Dynamo.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.13 vs 1.88 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 58%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 77%

Over 2.5 Goals 58%

Over 3.5 Goals 35%

Over 4.5 Goals 17%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 57%

Austin FC Clean Sheet 10%

Houston Dynamo Clean Sheet 13%

First Half Goal 69%

Second Half Goal 73%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Austin FC	Houston Dynamo
Matches Played	31	29
Wins	5	16
Draws	7	3
Losses	19	10
Goals Scored	0.97	1.69
Goals Conceded	1.9	1.59
Expected Goals (xG)	1.38	1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.50	0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 MLS

Austin FC vs Houston Dynamo

Possession: 53% - 59% Cards: 0 - 3

2:0

Aug 10, 2025 MLS

Austin FC vs Houston Dynamo

Possession: 43% - 60% Cards: 2 - 2

2:2

May 22, 2025 US Open Cup

Austin FC vs Houston Dynamo

Possession: 42% - 55% Cards: 3 - 2

3:1

Apr 27, 2025 MLS

Houston Dynamo vs Austin FC

Possession: 56% - 42% Cards: 1 - 3

2:0

Sep 22, 2024 MLS

Austin FC vs Houston Dynamo

Possession: 53% - 40% Cards: 4 - 3

0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Austin FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Nelson J.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Uzuni M.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.06

Avg xA / game 0.69

Houston Dynamo Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14

Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Austin FC 25 / 100

Houston Dynamo 54 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Austin FC Houston Dynamo

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Houston Dynamo Win (2)

Secondary Pick Houston Dynamo & Over 2.5

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +47%

5.88

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +11.4%

1.92

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Austin FC attacking → ← attacking Houston Dynamo

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Austin FC scored in 71% of their last 31 games.

Houston Dynamo let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Austin FC went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Houston Dynamo lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low

Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

22 Points in last 5 51

1.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.25

2.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	14	10	2	2	34:12	32
2	San Jose Earthquakes	15	10	2	3	34:15	32
3	Real Salt Lake	14	8	2	4	26:19	26
4	FC Dallas	15	7	4	4	30:22	25
5	Los Angeles FC	15	7	3	5	24:17	24
6	Seattle Sounders	13	7	3	3	17:11	24
7	Houston Dynamo	14	7	1	6	19:23	22
8	Minnesota United	15	6	4	5	18:22	22
9	Los Angeles Galaxy	15	5	5	5	22:22	20
10	San Diego FC	15	4	5	6	30:27	17
11	Colorado Rapids	15	5	1	9	25:24	16
12	St. Louis City	14	4	4	6	16:20	16
13	Portland Timbers	14	4	2	8	22:28	14
14	Austin FC	15	3	5	7	19:31	14
15	Sporting Kansas City	14	3	2	9	14:36	11

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nashville SC	14	10	3	1	31:11	33
2	Inter Miami	15	9	4	2	39:28	31
3	Chicago Fire	14	8	2	4	27:16	26
4	New England Revolution	14	8	1	5	22:18	25
5	New York Red Bulls	15	6	4	5	25:32	22
6	Charlotte FC	15	6	3	6	24:23	21
7	FC Cincinnati	15	5	5	5	36:37	20
8	New York City	15	5	4	6	25:21	19
9	DC United	15	4	6	5	21:25	18
10	Columbus Crew	15	4	4	7	21:23	16
11	CF Montreal	14	4	2	8	22:31	14
12	Orlando City	15	4	2	9	23:44	14
13	Toronto FC	14	3	5	6	22:29	14
14	Atlanta United	14	3	2	9	14:23	11
15	Philadelphia Union	15	1	4	10	18:30	7