Sport Picks
Austin FC vs Nashville SC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
USA
MLS Q2 Stadium, Austin, TX 
Match Events
30'
30'
Baker-Whiting R.
37'
37'
Guilherme Biro
AI Match Summary
Nashville SC in this MLS matchup, with the score ending 1-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Nashville SC.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
30%
35%
35%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
35%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Nashville SC lately — more wins on the board than Austin FC.
- 35% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Austin FC Clean Sheet 15%
Nashville SC Clean Sheet 15%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Austin FC | Nashville SC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 27 |
| Wins | 10 | 16 |
| Draws | 8 | 5 |
| Losses | 11 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 1.45 | 1.78 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.59 | 0.89 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.00 | 1.56 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 2, 2025 US Open Cup
Austin FC vs Nashville SC
1:2
Feb 15, 2025 Club Friendly
Austin FC vs Nashville SC
2:1
Aug 25, 2024 MLS
Nashville SC vs Austin FC
0:2
Sep 18, 2022 MLS
Austin FC vs Nashville SC
1:1
Sep 4, 2022 MLS
Nashville SC vs Austin FC
3:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Austin FC Compare
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5
Nashville SC Compare
Top Goalscorer Baker-Whiting R.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Austin FC 31 / 100
Nashville SC 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Austin FC Nashville SC
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Nashville SC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Recent resilience: Austin FC stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.
Austin FC scored in 76% of their last 29 games.
H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.
Nashville SC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 59% of 27 matches.
Scoring Trends
Austin FC VS Nashville SC
1.25 Goals Scored 1.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.75
88% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Austin FC
(Home) 27 Sept
Austin FC
3 : 3 San Diego FC
20 Sept
FC Dallas
0 : 0 Austin FC
13 Sept
Vancouver Whitecaps
1 : 2 Austin FC
10 Sept
Austin FC
1 : 1 Colorado Rapids
06 Sept
Austin FC
1 : 1 San Jose Earthquakes
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27 Sept
Austin FC
3 : 3 San Diego FC
10 Sept
Austin FC
1 : 1 Colorado Rapids
06 Sept
Austin FC
1 : 1 San Jose Earthquakes
23 Aug
Austin FC
1 : 1 Philadelphia Union
17 Aug
Austin FC
1 : 2 FC Dallas
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Nashville SC
(Away) 27 Sept
Nashville SC
2 : 0 Toronto FC
20 Sept
Nashville SC
3 : 0 Chicago Fire
12 Sept
Inter Miami
2 : 2 Nashville SC
09 Sept
Toronto FC
2 : 1 Nashville SC
04 Sept
New York City
0 : 0 Nashville SC
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12 Sept
Inter Miami
2 : 2 Nashville SC
09 Sept
Toronto FC
2 : 1 Nashville SC
04 Sept
New York City
0 : 0 Nashville SC
19 Aug
New York Red Bulls
0 : 1 Nashville SC
13 Aug
Monterrey
2 : 1 Nashville SC
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League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 27 | 15 | 5 | 7 | 60:29 | 50 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 48:36 | 47 |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 50:42 | 47 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 49:39 | 45 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 34:32 | 44 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 43:30 | 41 |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 35:35 | 38 |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 27 | 11 | 3 | 13 | 38:38 | 36 |
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 37:44 | 36 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 48:51 | 32 |
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 40:44 | 32 |
| 12 | San Diego FC | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 47:47 | 32 |
| 13 | Austin FC | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 35:47 | 31 |
| 14 | Minnesota United | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 40:49 | 29 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 27 | 6 | 3 | 18 | 32:65 | 21 |
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 27 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 55:21 | 60 |
| 2 | Chicago Fire | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 51:40 | 48 |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 27 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 45:36 | 46 |
| 4 | Inter Miami | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 64:50 | 46 |
| 5 | Charlotte FC | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 47:38 | 43 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 54:44 | 39 |
| 7 | Orlando City | 27 | 10 | 4 | 13 | 48:64 | 34 |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 34:51 | 33 |
| 9 | New York City | 28 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 42:38 | 33 |
| 10 | FC Cincinnati | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 55:64 | 33 |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 28 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 41:52 | 32 |
| 12 | DC United | 26 | 6 | 12 | 8 | 34:42 | 30 |
| 13 | Columbus Crew | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 39:43 | 29 |
| 14 | Atlanta United | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 32:45 | 27 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 28 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 35:56 | 24 |
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
