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Australia vs Brazil

World World

Friendly International Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville
Fri, Sep 25, 2026
1 - 0
10:00 AM
Our Tip

Match Events

20'
Irvine J.
45'
Estêvão
62'
Sub
Bruno Guimaraes In: Douglas Luiz
Out: Bruno Guimaraes

AI Match Summary

Australia host Brazil in the Friendly International. Recent head-to-head results give a strong hint here. Australia have averaged 1.64 scored and 0.75 conceded recently, against Brazil's 1.89 scored and 0.96 conceded. Head-to-head, Australia have won 1 to Brazil's 4, with 0 draws. They last met on Jun 13, 2017, ending 0:4. xG projections (1.06 - 1.81) back Brazil to edge this. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Australia
30%
Draws
47%
Brazil
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Brazil

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Brazil's 1.89 goals per match outpaces what Australia have produced (1.64).
  • Model gives Brazil a 47% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Friendly International form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Brazil here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Australia Clean Sheet 11%
Brazil Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Australia Brazil
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 15 15
Draws 6 6
Losses 7 7
Goals Scored 1.64 1.89
Goals Conceded 0.75 0.96
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 13, 2017 Friendly International
Australia vs Brazil
0:4
Sep 7, 2013 Friendly International
Brazil vs Australia
6:0
Jun 18, 2006 World Championship
Brazil vs Australia
2:0
Jun 9, 2001 FIFA Confederations Cup
Australia vs Brazil
1:0
Dec 21, 1997 FIFA Confederations Cup
Brazil vs Australia
6:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Australia Compare

Top Goalscorer Irankunda N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Brazil Compare

Top Goalscorer Rayan
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Australia 18 / 100
Brazil 57 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Australia Brazil

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Brazil Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.80 goals when they meet.

Australia found the back of the net in 71% of recent matches (28 games).

Brazil's defensive record shows goals conceded in 68% of 28 matches.

Australia has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Australia VS Brazil
1.13 Goals Scored 2.63
1 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 100%
25% Over 2.5 88%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Australia

(Home)
03 Jul
Australia
1 : 2
Egypt
26 Jun
Paraguay
0 : 0
Australia
19 Jun
USA
2 : 0
Australia
14 Jun
Australia
2 : 0
Turkey
06 Jun
Switzerland
1 : 1
Australia
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Brazil

(Away)
05 Jul
Brazil
1 : 2
Norway
29 Jun
Brazil
2 : 1
Japan
24 Jun
Scotland
0 : 3
Brazil
20 Jun
Brazil
3 : 0
Haiti
13 Jun
Brazil
1 : 1
Morocco
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