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Australia vs Indonesia

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World Championship 2026 Sydney Football Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Australia play Indonesia in the World Championship 2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Australia averaged 1.81 goals scored and 0.77 conceded. Indonesia averaged 1.32 goals scored and 1.29 conceded. In past meetings, Australia won 3, Indonesia won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on Mar 20, 2025 ended 5:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.04 for Australia and 1.28 for Indonesia. This points to a Australia double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Australia
26%
Draws
30%
Indonesia
Draw rate projection: 26% Favored: Australia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence
  • Australia picked up more points recently compared to Indonesia.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.04 vs 1.28 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 46%
Over 3.5 Goals 28%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31%
Australia Clean Sheet 19%
Indonesia Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 57%
Second Half Goal 60%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Australia Indonesia
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 17 13
Draws 6 6
Losses 8 12
Goals Scored 1.81 1.32
Goals Conceded 0.77 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.43
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 0.71

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 20, 2025 World Championship
Australia vs Indonesia
5:1
Sep 10, 2024 World Championship
Indonesia vs Australia
0:0
Jan 28, 2024 Asian Cup
Australia vs Indonesia
4:0
Mar 3, 2010 Asian Cup
Australia vs Indonesia
1:0
Jan 28, 2009 Asian Cup
Indonesia vs Australia
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Australia Compare

Top Goalscorer Irvine J.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Velupillay N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Indonesia Compare

Top Goalscorer ter Haar Romeny O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.79

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Australia 43 / 100
Indonesia 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Australia Indonesia

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Australia or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +22.3%
2.78
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15%
2.50
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Australia attacking → ← attacking Indonesia

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Australia scored in 74% of their last 31 games.

Indonesia let in goals in 52% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Australia went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Indonesia lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

57 Points in last 5 45
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.43
1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.71

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PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
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2Australia1054116:719
3Saudi Arabia103437:813
4Indonesia103349:2012
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