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Australia vs Japan Prediction & H2H Stats

World World

World Championship 2026 Optus Stadium, Perth
Our Tip

Match Events

46'
Sub
Machida K. In: Seko A.
Out: Machida K.
46'
Sub
Boyle M. In: McGree R.
Out: Boyle M.
46'
Sub
Teague R. In: Yazbek P.
Out: Teague R.

AI Match Summary

Australia in this World Championship 2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Australia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Australia
30%
Draws
58%
Japan
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Japan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Japan have won more games recently than Australia.
  • Model gives Japan a 58% chance of winning this.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Australia Clean Sheet 17%
Japan Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Australia Japan
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 15 20
Draws 7 6
Losses 8 3
Goals Scored 1.63 2.28
Goals Conceded 0.87 0.59
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 5, 2025 World Championship
Australia vs Japan
1:0
Oct 15, 2024 World Championship
Japan vs Australia
1:1
Mar 24, 2022 World Championship
Australia vs Japan
0:2
Oct 12, 2021 World Championship
Japan vs Australia
2:1
Aug 31, 2017 World Championship
Japan vs Australia
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Australia Compare

Top Goalscorer Behich A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Japan Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Australia 23 / 100
Japan 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Australia Japan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Japan Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Australia found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Japan let in goals in 41% of their last 29 matches.

Australia has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Australia VS Japan
1.25 Goals Scored 1.75
1 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Australia

(Home)
29 Sept
Australia
2 : 4
Brazil
25 Sept
Australia
1 : 1
Brazil
03 Jul
Australia
1 : 2
Egypt
26 Jun
Paraguay
0 : 0
Australia
19 Jun
USA
2 : 0
Australia
Page 1 of 6

Japan

(Away)
01 Oct
Japan
1 : 0
Ecuador
28 Sept
Japan
2 : 1
Venezuela
24 Sept
Japan
3 : 1
Uruguay
29 Jun
Brazil
2 : 1
Japan
25 Jun
Japan
1 : 1
Sweden
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Iran 10 7 2 1 19:8 23
2 Uzbekistan 10 6 3 1 14:7 21
3 United Arab Emirates 10 4 3 3 15:8 15
4 Qatar 10 4 1 5 17:24 13
5 Kyrgyzstan 10 2 2 6 12:18 8
6 North Korea 10 0 3 7 9:21 3
Promotion - World Championship 2026 (Main)
Promotion - World Championship 2026 (Fourth stage)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 South Korea 10 6 4 0 20:7 22
2 Jordan 10 4 4 2 16:8 16
3 Iraq 10 4 3 3 9:9 15
4 Oman 10 3 2 5 9:14 11
5 Palestine 10 2 4 4 10:13 10
6 Kuwait 10 0 5 5 7:20 5
Promotion - World Championship 2026 (Main)
Promotion - World Championship 2026 (Fourth stage)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Japan 10 7 2 1 30:3 23
2 Australia 10 5 4 1 16:7 19
3 Saudi Arabia 10 3 4 3 7:8 13
4 Indonesia 10 3 3 4 9:20 12
5 China 10 3 0 7 7:20 9
6 Bahrain 10 1 3 6 5:16 6
Promotion - World Championship 2026 (Main)
Promotion - World Championship 2026 (Fourth stage)