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Auxerre vs Brest Prediction & H2H Stats

France France

Ligue 1 Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps, Auxerre
Our Tip

Match Events

23' Event
Mboup P.
Assist: Chotard J.
46'
Sub
Labeau Lascary R. In: Faivre R.
Out: Labeau Lascary R.
46'
Sub
Piedfort A. In: Ahamada N.
Out: Piedfort A.

AI Match Summary

Auxerre in this Ligue 1 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Auxerre.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Auxerre
20%
Draws
29%
Brest
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Auxerre

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Brest haven't matched Auxerre's recent run of results.
  • Auxerre are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Auxerre Clean Sheet 15%
Brest Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Auxerre Brest
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 10 6
Draws 9 10
Losses 8 12
Goals Scored 1.48 1.29
Goals Conceded 1.37 1.71
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2026 Ligue 1
Auxerre vs Brest
2:1
Mar 21, 2026 Ligue 1
Auxerre vs Brest
3:0
Jan 4, 2026 Ligue 1
Brest vs Auxerre
2:0
Feb 14, 2025 Ligue 1
Brest vs Auxerre
2:2
Sep 27, 2024 Ligue 1
Auxerre vs Brest
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Auxerre Compare

Top Goalscorer Archer C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Brest Compare

Top Goalscorer Mboup P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Auxerre 35 / 100
Brest 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Auxerre Brest

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Brest's defensive record shows goals conceded in 86% of 28 matches.

Auxerre's goal record stands at 74% scoring rate across 27 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Auxerre has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Auxerre VS Brest
0.88 Goals Scored 1.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.75
50% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Auxerre

(Home)
02 Oct
Auxerre
4 : 3
Clermont
20 Sept
Auxerre
2 : 1
Brest
12 Sept
Auxerre
1 : 0
Nice
04 Sept
Lyon
3 : 1
Auxerre
29 Aug
Auxerre
1 : 3
Angers
Page 1 of 6

Brest

(Away)
20 Sept
Auxerre
2 : 1
Brest
13 Sept
Brest
0 : 1
PSG
05 Sept
Le Havre
1 : 2
Brest
29 Aug
Brest
2 : 2
Toulouse
22 Aug
Le Mans
2 : 2
Brest
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Monaco 5 4 1 0 8:3 13
2 Lyon 5 3 2 0 10:2 11
3 Paris FC 5 3 2 0 8:3 11
4 Lille 5 3 1 1 8:4 10
5 Rennes 5 3 1 1 8:9 10
6 PSG 5 2 2 1 8:7 8
7 Angers 5 2 1 2 6:5 7
8 Strasbourg 5 2 1 2 10:10 7
9 Le Mans 5 1 3 1 9:9 6
10 Auxerre 5 2 0 3 7:12 6
11 Brest 5 1 2 2 7:8 5
12 Lorient 5 1 2 2 5:6 5
13 Toulouse 5 1 2 2 7:9 5
14 Nice 5 1 2 2 3:6 5
15 Lens 5 1 1 3 9:9 4
16 Troyes 5 1 1 3 4:11 4
17 Marseille 5 1 0 4 7:8 3
18 Le Havre 5 0 2 3 4:7 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 2027/2028 (Main)