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Auxerre vs Le Mans - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

France France

Ligue 1 Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps, Auxerre
Sun, Oct 25, 2026
VS
04:15 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Auxerre host Le Mans in the Ligue 1. Expect goals in this one — both sides have been finding the net. Recent numbers: Auxerre at 1.58 goals for, 1.54 against; Le Mans at 1.61 for, 1.36 against. Head-to-head, Auxerre have won 3 to Le Mans's 1, with 1 draws. They last met on Aug 1, 2020, ending 3:2. The numbers (1.69 xG vs 1.63) point toward Auxerre. AI goal market prediction: Over 2.5, BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Auxerre
15%
Draws
26%
Le Mans
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Auxerre

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Le Mans at 1.61 per game, Auxerre at 1.58.
  • Auxerre are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • Regular Ligue 1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Auxerre Clean Sheet 14%
Le Mans Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Auxerre Le Mans
Matches Played 26 28
Wins 10 10
Draws 8 11
Losses 8 7
Goals Scored 1.58 1.61
Goals Conceded 1.54 1.36
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2020 Club Friendly
Auxerre vs Le Mans
3:2
Jan 10, 2020 Ligue 2
Le Mans vs Auxerre
0:1
Aug 2, 2019 Ligue 2
Auxerre vs Le Mans
2:0
Jan 25, 2013 Ligue 2
Auxerre vs Le Mans
1:1
Aug 20, 2012 Ligue 2
Le Mans vs Auxerre
3:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Auxerre 66 / 100
Le Mans 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Auxerre Le Mans

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Auxerre Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Auxerre scored in 81% of their last 26 outings.

Le Mans has conceded goals in 71% of their last 28 outings.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Auxerre remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Auxerre VS Le Mans
1.5 Goals Scored 1.38
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.88
63% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Auxerre

(Home)
11 Oct
Rennes
4 : 1
Auxerre
02 Oct
Auxerre
4 : 3
Clermont
20 Sept
Auxerre
2 : 1
Brest
12 Sept
Auxerre
1 : 0
Nice
04 Sept
Lyon
3 : 1
Auxerre
Page 1 of 6

Le Mans

(Away)
16 Oct
Le Mans
0 : 3
Toulouse
10 Oct
PSG
3 : 1
Le Mans
02 Oct
Guingamp
2 : 1
Le Mans
19 Sept
Le Mans
2 : 1
Lorient
13 Sept
Le Mans
2 : 2
Lens
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Monaco 6 4 2 0 10:5 14
2 Lille 6 4 1 1 9:4 13
3 Rennes 6 4 1 1 12:10 13
4 Lyon 6 3 2 1 11:4 11
5 Paris FC 6 3 2 1 8:4 11
6 PSG 6 3 2 1 11:8 11
7 Toulouse 7 2 3 2 12:11 9
8 Brest 6 2 2 2 12:9 8
9 Lorient 6 2 2 2 6:6 8
10 Nice 6 2 2 2 5:7 8
11 Lens 6 2 1 3 11:10 7
12 Strasbourg 6 2 1 3 11:12 7
13 Angers 6 2 1 3 7:10 7
14 Marseille 6 2 0 4 9:8 6
15 Le Mans 7 1 3 3 10:15 6
16 Auxerre 6 2 0 4 8:16 6
17 Troyes 6 1 1 4 4:13 4
18 Le Havre 6 0 2 4 4:8 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 2027/2028 (Main)