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AV Alta FC vs Forward Madison

USA USA

USL League One Lancaster Municipal Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

AV Alta FC play Forward Madison in the USL League One. It looks like a close match. Recently, AV Alta FC averaged 1.28 goals scored and 1.45 conceded. Forward Madison averaged 1.36 goals scored and 1.57 conceded. In past meetings, AV Alta FC won 1, Forward Madison won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on May 10, 2026 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.31 for AV Alta FC and 1.19 for Forward Madison. This points to a Forward Madison double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
AV Alta FC
35%
Draws
33%
Forward Madison
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Forward Madison

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence
  • AV Alta FC picked up more points recently compared to Forward Madison.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.31 vs 1.19 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 57%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 57%
Over 3.5 Goals 34%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 50%
AV Alta FC Clean Sheet 20%
Forward Madison Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AV Alta FC Forward Madison
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 8 12
Draws 11 4
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 1.28 1.36
Goals Conceded 1.45 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 USL League One
AV Alta FC vs Forward Madison
2:0
Sep 7, 2025 USL League One
AV Alta FC vs Forward Madison
3:3
Aug 2, 2025 USL League One
Forward Madison vs AV Alta FC
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AV Alta FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Antwi G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Forward Madison Compare

Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AV Alta FC 33 / 100
Forward Madison 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AV Alta FC Forward Madison

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Forward Madison or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +33.4%
4.17
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.7%
1.96
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

AV Alta FC attacking → ← attacking Forward Madison

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AV Alta FC scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Forward Madison let in goals in 75% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.67 goals.

AV Alta FC went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Forward Madison lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

35 Points in last 5 40
1.50 Goals expected (xG) 1.75
0.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Union Omaha16101525:1831
2Charlotte Independence1493234:1830
3One Knoxville1493226:1230
4AV Alta FC1667323:1825
5Athletic Club Boise1673623:2324
6Fort Wayne1466220:1224
7Forward Madison1372422:1423
8Spokane Velocity1572617:2123
9Portland Hearts of Pine1555524:2420
10Chattanooga Red Wolves1261522:1519
11Corpus Christi FC1646620:2618
12FC Naples1652918:2617
13Sarasota Paradise17521017:2817
14Westchester SC1542923:2314
15Greenville Triumph1241714:2113
16Richmond Kickers1433812:2412
17New York Cosmos13211016:337