Sport Picks

Kazakhstan

First Division 2006

Tobol 2

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Avangard Petropavlovsk play Tobol 2 in the First Division 2006. It looks like a close match. Recently, Avangard Petropavlovsk averaged 1.65 goals scored and 1.74 conceded. Tobol 2 averaged 1.38 goals scored and 2.31 conceded. In past meetings, Avangard Petropavlovsk won 3, Tobol 2 won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Sep 4, 2007 ended 3:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.17 for Avangard Petropavlovsk and 1.25 for Tobol 2. This points to a Avangard Petropavlovsk double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

55%

Avangard Petropavlovsk

24%

Draws

21%

Tobol 2

Draw rate projection: 24% Favored: Avangard Petropavlovsk

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence

Avangard Petropavlovsk picked up more points recently compared to Tobol 2.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.17 vs 1.25 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 86%

Over 2.5 Goals 80%

Over 3.5 Goals 48%

Over 4.5 Goals 24%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66%

Avangard Petropavlovsk Clean Sheet 19%

Tobol 2 Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 77%

Second Half Goal 82%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Avangard Petropavlovsk	Tobol 2
Matches Played	31	29
Wins	15	4
Draws	4	9
Losses	12	16
Goals Scored	1.65	1.38
Goals Conceded	1.74	2.31
Expected Goals (xG)	1.83	1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.00	2.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 4, 2007 First League

Avangard Petropavlovsk vs Tobol 2

Possession: 46% - 54% Cards: 2 - 1

3:3

Jun 17, 2007 First League

Tobol 2 vs Avangard Petropavlovsk

Possession: 54% - 43% Cards: 0 - 2

2:4

Aug 27, 2006 First League

Avangard Petropavlovsk vs Tobol 2

Possession: 55% - 59% Cards: 1 - 2

2:1

Jun 29, 2006 First League

Tobol 2 vs Avangard Petropavlovsk

Possession: 53% - 48% Cards: 0 - 1

0:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Avangard Petropavlovsk 53 / 100

Tobol 2 21 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Avangard Petropavlovsk Tobol 2

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Avangard Petropavlovsk Win (1)

Secondary Pick Avangard Petropavlovsk & Over 2.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +17.1%

2.13

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +8%

1.35

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Avangard Petropavlovsk attacking → ← attacking Tobol 2

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Avangard Petropavlovsk scored in 81% of their last 31 games.

Tobol 2 let in goals in 90% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 4.25 goals.

Avangard Petropavlovsk went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Tobol 2 lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

49 Points in last 5 21

1.83 Goals expected (xG) 1.50

1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.50

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Zhetysu Taldykorgan	26	25	1	0	119:14	76
2	Kaspij Aktau	26	19	3	4	63:20	60
3	Gornyak Khromtay	26	17	1	8	40:25	52
4	Cesna Almaty	26	16	4	6	64:30	52
5	Zheleznodorozhnik Almaty	26	15	5	6	39:25	50
6	Akzhayik Uralsk	26	16	1	9	56:31	49
7	Zhambyl Taraz	26	9	8	9	35:30	35
8	Aktobe 2	26	10	3	13	43:50	33
9	Munaily Atyrau	26	6	7	13	25:48	25
10	Ordabasy 2	26	7	3	16	34:65	24
11	Koksu	26	6	2	18	32:59	20
12	AI-Universitet	26	5	4	17	29:57	19
13	Kaisar Kyzylorda 2	26	4	3	19	23:71	15
14	Zhastar Uralsk	26	3	3	20	12:89	12

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Avangard Petropavlovsk	24	16	3	5	39:19	51
2	Asbest Zitikara	24	15	5	4	37:17	50
3	Shakhter Karagandy 2	24	12	8	4	25:12	44
4	Spartak Semey	24	12	7	5	46:25	43
5	Kazakhmys	24	12	5	7	36:35	41
6	Shakhter Yunost	24	11	5	8	41:25	38
7	Aksu	24	10	6	8	32:28	36
8	Ertis Pavlodar 2	24	10	4	10	38:28	34
9	Rakhat Astana	24	9	6	9	27:26	33
10	Vostok Oskemen 2	24	9	5	10	33:37	32
11	Tobol 2	24	4	4	16	20:41	16
12	Energetik Pavlodar 2	24	4	2	18	17:47	14
13	Batyr Ekibastuz	24	2	0	22	13:64	6