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Avellino vs Cesena

Italy Italy

Serie B 2025/2026 Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Avellino
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Olivieri M.
Assist: Bisoli D.
17' Event
Biasci T.
Assist: Sounas D.
33'
Frabotta G.

AI Match Summary

The Serie B 2025/2026 game between Avellino and Cesena finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Avellino.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Avellino
15%
Draws
50%
Cesena
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Cesena

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Avellino come out ahead of Cesena on wins alone.
  • Cesena are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Regular Serie B 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Avellino Clean Sheet 18%
Cesena Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Avellino Cesena
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 12 9
Draws 5 9
Losses 12 12
Goals Scored 2.21 1.27
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 2.75 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 31, 2026 Serie B
Avellino vs Cesena
3:1
Nov 9, 2025 Serie B
Cesena vs Avellino
3:0
Feb 10, 2018 Serie B
Avellino vs Cesena
1:1
Sep 15, 2017 Serie B
Cesena vs Avellino
3:1
Apr 22, 2017 Serie B
Avellino vs Cesena
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Avellino Compare

Top Goalscorer Biasci T.
3 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.12
Avg xA / game 1.38

Cesena Compare

Top Goalscorer Olivieri M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Avellino 23 / 100
Cesena 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Avellino Cesena

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CES Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Avellino's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: Cesena conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Avellino remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Avellino VS Cesena
4.75 Goals Scored 1.88
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Avellino

(Home)
08 Aug
Avellino
1 : 2
Torino
01 Aug
Lazio
6 : 3
Avellino
28 Jul
Avellino
3 : 1
Real Forio 2014
26 Jul
Sambenedettese
0 : 5
Avellino
22 Jul
Avellino
3 : 1
Scafatese
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Cesena

(Away)
08 Aug
Forli FC
0 : 0
Cesena
05 Aug
Cesena
3 : 0
Vis Pesaro
01 Aug
Cesena
3 : 0
Fossombrone
25 Jul
Cesena
1 : 0
Carpi
21 Jul
Cesena
5 : 0
SSD Sampierana
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Venezia 38 24 10 4 77:31 82
2 Frosinone 38 23 12 3 76:34 81
3 Monza 38 22 10 6 61:32 76
4 Palermo 38 20 12 6 61:33 72
5 Catanzaro 38 15 14 9 62:51 59
6 Modena 38 15 10 13 49:36 55
7 Juve Stabia 38 11 18 9 44:45 51
8 Avellino 38 13 10 15 43:55 49
9 Mantova 38 13 7 18 45:57 46
10 Padova 38 12 10 16 39:49 46
11 Cesena 38 12 10 16 45:56 46
12 Carrarese 38 10 14 14 47:52 44
13 Sampdoria 38 11 11 16 35:48 44
14 Entella 38 10 12 16 36:51 42
15 Empoli 38 9 14 15 47:54 41
16 Sudtirol 38 8 17 13 38:48 41
17 Bari 38 10 10 18 38:60 40
18 Reggiana 38 9 10 19 36:56 37
19 Spezia 38 8 11 19 43:59 35
20 Pescara 38 7 14 17 51:66 35
Promotion - Serie A (Main)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Out)