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Avellino vs Padova

Italy Italy

Serie B 2025/2026 Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Avellino
Our Tip

Match Events

18'
Sub
Sgarbi F. In: Villa L.
Out: Sgarbi F.
25'
Izzo A.
45'
Patierno C.

AI Match Summary

Avellino in this Serie B 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Avellino.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Avellino
6%
Draws
4%
Padova
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Avellino

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Avellino lately — more wins on the board than Padova.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Avellino taking it.
  • Regular Serie B 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Avellino Clean Sheet 68%
Padova Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Avellino Padova
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 9
Draws 7 6
Losses 11 15
Goals Scored 3.75 1.13
Goals Conceded 0.88 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 3.75 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 7, 2026 Serie B
Avellino vs Padova
1:0
Sep 30, 2025 Serie B
Padova vs Avellino
2:2
May 3, 2025 Super Cup (Serie C)
Avellino vs Padova
0:1
Jun 9, 2021 Serie C - Group A
Avellino vs Padova
0:1
Jun 6, 2021 Serie C - Group A
Padova vs Avellino
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Avellino Compare

Top Goalscorer Russo R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.88
Avg xA / game 1.88

Padova Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Avellino 95 / 100
Padova 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Avellino Padova

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AVE Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Padova's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

Avellino scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Avellino has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Avellino VS Padova
3.75 Goals Scored 1.13
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 38%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Avellino

(Home)
28 Jul
Avellino
3 : 1
Real Forio 2014
26 Jul
Sambenedettese
0 : 5
Avellino
22 Jul
Avellino
3 : 1
Scafatese
19 Jul
Avellino
24 : 0
Castel di Sangro
12 May
Catanzaro
3 : 0
Avellino
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Padova

(Away)
25 Jul
Padova
1 : 3
Ospitaletto
22 Jul
Sassuolo
4 : 1
Padova
08 May
Cesena
3 : 4
Padova
01 May
Padova
1 : 0
Pescara
25 Apr
Entella
1 : 0
Padova
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Venezia382410477:3182
2Frosinone382312376:3481
3Monza382210661:3276
4Palermo382012661:3372
5Catanzaro381514962:5159
6Modena3815101349:3655
7Juve Stabia381118944:4551
8Avellino3813101543:5549
9Mantova381371845:5746
10Padova3812101639:4946
11Cesena3812101645:5646
12Carrarese3810141447:5244
13Sampdoria3811111635:4844
14Entella3810121636:5142
15Empoli389141547:5441
16Sudtirol388171338:4841
17Bari3810101838:6040
18Reggiana389101936:5637
19Spezia388111943:5935
20Pescara387141751:6635
Promotion - Serie A (Main)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Out)