Sport Picks
Avispa Fukuoka vs Cerezo Osaka - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Japan
J1 League Best Denki Stadium, Fukuoka 
Match Events
35'
35'
Fujimoto K.
43'
43'
Tsujioka Y.
45'
45'
Maeda K.
AI Match Summary
The J1 League game between Avispa Fukuoka and Cerezo Osaka finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Avispa Fukuoka.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
34%
20%
46%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Cerezo Osaka
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
46%
/ Medium Confidence
- Cerezo Osaka carry the better recent record into this one.
- Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- Cerezo Osaka have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Avispa Fukuoka Clean Sheet 20%
Cerezo Osaka Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Avispa Fukuoka | Cerezo Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 12 | 17 |
| Draws | 2 | 4 |
| Losses | 14 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 1.39 | 1.61 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.43 | 1.18 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.06 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 15, 2026 J1 League
Avispa Fukuoka vs Cerezo Osaka
3:0
May 3, 2026 J1 League
Cerezo Osaka vs Avispa Fukuoka
2:1
Feb 15, 2026 J1 League
Avispa Fukuoka vs Cerezo Osaka
0:2
Sep 13, 2025 J1 League
Avispa Fukuoka vs Cerezo Osaka
2:4
May 24, 2025 J1 League
Cerezo Osaka vs Avispa Fukuoka
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Avispa Fukuoka Compare
Top Goalscorer Fujimoto K.
1 Goals Assists Leader Tsujioka Y.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53
Cerezo Osaka Compare
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Avispa Fukuoka 36 / 100
Cerezo Osaka 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Avispa Fukuoka Cerezo Osaka
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Cerezo Osaka Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.
Avispa Fukuoka's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 28 recent games.
Cerezo Osaka has conceded goals in 64% of their last 28 outings.
Avispa Fukuoka has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Avispa Fukuoka VS Cerezo Osaka
1 Goals Scored 1
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Avispa Fukuoka
(Home) 10 Oct
Avispa Fukuoka
2 : 1 Okayama
07 Oct
Avispa Fukuoka
0 : 1 Yokohama FC
29 Sept
FC Osaka
1 : 2 Avispa Fukuoka
19 Sept
Avispa Fukuoka
0 : 1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
12 Sept
Shimizu S-Pulse
1 : 0 Avispa Fukuoka
Page 1 of 6
10 Oct
Avispa Fukuoka
2 : 1 Okayama
07 Oct
Avispa Fukuoka
0 : 1 Yokohama FC
19 Sept
Avispa Fukuoka
0 : 1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
05 Sept
Avispa Fukuoka
1 : 1 Mito
02 Sept
Avispa Fukuoka
2 : 3 Urawa Reds
Page 1 of 4
Cerezo Osaka
(Away) 10 Oct
Cerezo Osaka
0 : 0 Yokohama F. Marinos
07 Oct
Cerezo Osaka
2 : 0 Kagoshima United
29 Sept
Fujieda MYFC
1 : 2 Cerezo Osaka
19 Sept
V-Varen Nagasaki
1 : 1 Cerezo Osaka
12 Sept
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
6 : 1 Cerezo Osaka
Page 1 of 6
29 Sept
Fujieda MYFC
1 : 2 Cerezo Osaka
19 Sept
V-Varen Nagasaki
1 : 1 Cerezo Osaka
12 Sept
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
6 : 1 Cerezo Osaka
29 Aug
Vissel Kobe
1 : 0 Cerezo Osaka
15 Aug
Avispa Fukuoka
3 : 0 Cerezo Osaka
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kashiwa Reysol | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 21:14 | 21 |
| 2 | Machida Zelvia | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 22:10 | 20 |
| 3 | FC Tokyo | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17:8 | 20 |
| 4 | Vissel Kobe | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14:9 | 19 |
| 5 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 20:6 | 17 |
| 6 | Kashima Antlers | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 19:16 | 16 |
| 7 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13:9 | 15 |
| 8 | Kawasaki Frontale | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 16:12 | 13 |
| 9 | Okayama | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 12:12 | 13 |
| 10 | Urawa Reds | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 16:21 | 12 |
| 11 | Cerezo Osaka | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7:12 | 12 |
| 12 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6:8 | 10 |
| 13 | Mito | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11:11 | 9 |
| 14 | Kyoto | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11:16 | 8 |
| 15 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10:15 | 8 |
| 16 | Avispa Fukuoka | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11:13 | 7 |
| 17 | Nagoya Grampus | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 7:14 | 6 |
| 18 | Gamba Osaka | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8:16 | 6 |
| 19 | Verdy | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4:12 | 4 |
| 20 | Chiba | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7:18 | 4 |
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League 2027/2028 (Main)
