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Avranches vs Tarbes - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

France France

National 1 - Group B Stade Rene Fenouillere, Avranches
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
04:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Avranches host Tarbes in the National 1 - Group B. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Recent numbers: Avranches at 1.56 goals for, 1.47 against; Tarbes at 1.1 for, 1.8 against. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. Model xG sits at 1.13 vs 1.00, favoring Avranches. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Avranches
35%
Draws
32%
Tarbes
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • Avranches carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 33% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular National 1 - Group B form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Avranches Clean Sheet 20%
Tarbes Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Avranches Tarbes
Matches Played 34 30
Wins 11 9
Draws 12 7
Losses 11 14
Goals Scored 1.56 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.47 1.8
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Avranches 31 / 100
Tarbes 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Avranches Tarbes

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Avranches Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Avranches scored in 74% of their last 34 games.

Tarbes let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Recent resilience: Avranches stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Tarbes's recent record shows 1 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Avranches VS Tarbes
1.63 Goals Scored 0.38
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.63
100% Over 1.5 25%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Avranches

(Home)
02 Oct
Chauray
0 : 2
Avranches
18 Sept
St. Colomban Locmine
1 : 0
Avranches
12 Sept
Avranches
0 : 0
Dinan
04 Sept
Les Herbiers
1 : 2
Avranches
28 Aug
Avranches
1 : 1
Angouleme CFC
Page 1 of 7

Tarbes

(Away)
03 Oct
Tarbes
0 : 0
Dinan
19 Sept
Les Herbiers
0 : 1
Tarbes
12 Sept
Tarbes
1 : 2
Angouleme CFC
05 Sept
Voltigeurs de Chateaubriant
0 : 0
Tarbes
29 Aug
Tarbes
1 : 0
Lorient II
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Angouleme CFC 6 4 2 0 10:4 14
2 Bayonne 6 4 1 1 9:5 13
3 Granville 6 3 2 1 9:8 11
4 Avranches 6 3 2 1 8:3 11
5 Dinan 6 3 2 1 5:3 11
6 Saint-Malo 6 3 2 1 8:3 11
7 Tarbes 6 2 3 1 3:2 9
8 Lorient II 6 3 0 3 10:6 9
9 Le Poire Sur Vie 6 3 0 3 8:8 9
10 Stade Briochin 6 2 3 1 8:6 9
11 Les Herbiers 6 2 1 3 5:7 7
12 St. Colomban Locmine 6 1 2 3 3:5 5
13 Saumur Olympique 6 1 1 4 4:10 4
14 Pontivy 6 0 3 3 5:10 3
15 Voltigeurs de Chateaubriant 6 0 3 3 3:10 3
16 Chauray 6 0 1 5 3:11 1
Promotion - Ligue 3 2027/2028 (Main)