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Ayeyawady vs Shan United - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Myanmar Myanmar

National League
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
09:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ayeyawady host Shan United in the National League. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Recent numbers: Ayeyawady at 1.53 goals for, 1.16 against; Shan United at 2.74 for, 1 against. Past meetings favor Shan United slightly — 0-5-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Feb 10, 2026, ending 1:3. The numbers (1.00 xG vs 2.31) point toward Shan United. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Ayeyawady
15%
Draws
53%
Shan United
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Shan United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Shan United have won more games recently than Ayeyawady.
  • 53% — that's where the model lands on Shan United taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Shan United have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Ayeyawady Clean Sheet 10%
Shan United Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ayeyawady Shan United
Matches Played 32 38
Wins 13 25
Draws 6 4
Losses 13 9
Goals Scored 1.53 2.74
Goals Conceded 1.16 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 2.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 10, 2026 National League
Ayeyawady vs Shan United
1:3
Sep 27, 2025 National League
Shan United vs Ayeyawady
3:1
Jun 24, 2025 MNL League Cup
Ayeyawady vs Shan United
0:2
Oct 19, 2024 National League
Shan United vs Ayeyawady
2:0
Sep 8, 2024 National League
Ayeyawady vs Shan United
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ayeyawady 18 / 100
Shan United 57 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ayeyawady Shan United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Shan United Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Ayeyawady scored in 69% of their last 32 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Defensive concern: Shan United conceded in 53% of 38 recent games.

Solid form: Ayeyawady remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Ayeyawady VS Shan United
1.5 Goals Scored 3.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Ayeyawady

(Home)
06 Sept
Ayeyawady
0 : 5
Dagon
29 Aug
Ayeyawady
2 : 1
Ispe
17 Mar
Mahar United
2 : 1
Ayeyawady
13 Mar
Ayeyawady
5 : 0
Yarmanya United
05 Mar
Yadanarbon
2 : 1
Ayeyawady
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Shan United

(Away)
14 Sept
Shan United
2 : 0
Ezra
11 Sept
Ezra
3 : 2
Shan United
05 Sept
Myawady
0 : 4
Shan United
30 Aug
Yangon Royals
2 : 2
Shan United
18 Mar
Shan United
1 : 0
Hantharwady United
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Dagon 3 2 1 0 9:2 7
2 Yangon United 2 2 0 0 7:1 6
3 Shan United 2 1 1 0 6:2 4
4 Yadanarbon 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
5 Mahar United 3 1 1 1 5:5 4
6 Ayeyawady 2 1 0 1 2:6 3
7 Thitsar Arman 2 0 2 0 4:4 2
8 Yangon Royals 2 0 2 0 2:2 2
9 Hantharwady United 2 0 1 1 2:4 1
10 Ispe 3 0 1 2 5:8 1
11 Myawady 2 0 1 1 2:6 1
12 Chinland 3 0 1 2 3:8 1
Promotion - AFC Challenge League 2027/2028 (Main)