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Ayia Napa vs Ermis Prediction & H2H Stats

Cyprus Cyprus

Division 2 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Kolokoudias T.
45' Event
Kolokoudias T.
(Penalty)
53' Event
Kafataris S.

AI Match Summary

Ayia Napa in this Division 2 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 6-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ayia Napa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Ayia Napa
15%
Draws
48%
Ermis
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ermis

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Ayia Napa lately — more wins on the board than Ermis.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Division 2 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Ayia Napa here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Ayia Napa Clean Sheet 18%
Ermis Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ayia Napa Ermis
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 5
Draws 7 2
Losses 12 22
Goals Scored 1.45 0.72
Goals Conceded 1.72 2.45
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 6, 2024 Division 2
Ayia Napa vs Ermis
6:3
Apr 22, 2023 Division 2
Ayia Napa vs Ermis
1:0
Feb 18, 2023 Division 2
Ermis vs Ayia Napa
2:0
Sep 10, 2022 Division 2
Ermis vs Ayia Napa
0:3
Feb 19, 2022 Division 2
Ermis vs Ayia Napa
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ayia Napa Compare

Top Goalscorer Kolokoudias T.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Christou A.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Ermis Compare

Top Goalscorer Kafataris S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Zachariou A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ayia Napa 31 / 100
Ermis 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ayia Napa Ermis

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ayia Napa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ermis's defensive record shows goals conceded in 90% of 29 matches.

H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Ayia Napa stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Ayia Napa's goal record stands at 59% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Ayia Napa VS Ermis
0.63 Goals Scored 0.75
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Ayia Napa

(Home)
18 Sept
Iraklis Yerolakkou
1 : 1
Ayia Napa
12 Sept
Ayia Napa
1 : 3
ASIL Lysi
25 Apr
Doxa
0 : 3
Ayia Napa
19 Apr
Ayia Napa
6 : 3
PAEEK
04 Apr
Nea Salamis
3 : 0
Ayia Napa
Page 1 of 6

Ermis

(Away)
03 Oct
Ermis
0 : 3
Nea Salamis
20 Sept
Ermis
1 : 2
PAEEK
11 Sept
Ermis
2 : 0
Akritas Chloraka
26 Apr
Ermis
2 : 1
PO Xylotymbou 2006
20 Apr
ENAD
1 : 2
Ermis
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Paralimni 15 10 3 2 22:11 33
2 Ol. Nicosia 15 9 3 3 20:10 30
3 Omonia Aradippou 15 8 5 2 20:10 29
4 Omonia 29th May 15 8 4 3 18:11 28
5 Krasava 15 7 6 2 20:11 27
6 Peyia 2014 FC 15 8 3 4 24:11 27
7 ASIL Lysi 15 6 5 4 16:14 23
8 Ayia Napa 15 6 3 6 17:19 21
9 Achyronas-Onisilos 15 4 7 4 16:14 19
10 Digenis Akritas 15 5 4 6 14:16 19
11 M.E.A.P. Nisou 15 4 3 8 11:19 15
12 PO Xylotymbou 2006 15 3 5 7 16:22 14
13 PAEEK 15 4 2 9 17:24 14
14 Akritas Chloraka 15 3 3 9 15:22 12
15 ENAD 15 3 3 9 14:21 12
16 Ermis 15 2 1 12 17:42 7
Promotion - Division 2 2023/2024 (Championship Group)
Relegation - Division 2 2023/2024 (Relegation Group)