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Stadium Background

Ayr vs Inverness - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Scotland Scotland

Championship Somerset Park, Ayr
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Longstaff L.
Assist: Allan P.
17' Event
Duncan R.
27' Event
Stirton O.
Assist: Taylor R.

AI Match Summary

Inverness in this Championship matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Inverness.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Ayr
15%
Draws
46%
Inverness
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Inverness

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Ayr haven't matched Inverness's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Ayr's way, sitting at 42%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Inverness here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Ayr Clean Sheet 18%
Inverness Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ayr Inverness
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 11 14
Draws 5 9
Losses 12 5
Goals Scored 1.29 1.57
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Championship
Ayr vs Inverness
1:3
Feb 24, 2026 Challenge Cup
Ayr vs Inverness
1:2
Mar 16, 2024 Championship
Inverness vs Ayr
1:2
Jan 6, 2024 Championship
Ayr vs Inverness
1:3
Nov 11, 2023 Championship
Inverness vs Ayr
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ayr Compare

Top Goalscorer Stirton O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Inverness Compare

Top Goalscorer Longstaff L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Duncan R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ayr 41 / 100
Inverness 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ayr Inverness

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.

Ayr found the back of the net in 75% of recent matches (28 games).

Inverness has conceded goals in 71% of their last 28 outings.

Ayr has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Ayr VS Inverness
0.88 Goals Scored 1.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Ayr

(Home)
03 Oct
Livingston
1 : 2
Ayr
25 Sept
Ayr
0 : 1
Stenhousemuir
18 Sept
Queen's Park
0 : 2
Ayr
12 Sept
Ayr
1 : 3
Inverness
05 Sept
Partick
1 : 0
Ayr
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Inverness

(Away)
25 Sept
Inverness
2 : 0
Morton
19 Sept
Livingston
2 : 2
Inverness
12 Sept
Ayr
1 : 3
Inverness
05 Sept
Inverness
0 : 2
Raith
29 Aug
Stenhousemuir
3 : 1
Inverness
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Stenhousemuir 8 7 1 0 12:2 22
2 Raith 9 5 2 2 13:6 17
3 Partick 8 4 3 1 8:2 15
4 Livingston 9 4 1 4 13:9 13
5 Dunfermline 7 3 3 1 6:4 12
6 Ayr 9 3 2 4 9:10 11
7 Arbroath 9 3 2 4 6:13 11
8 Inverness 8 2 4 2 9:9 10
9 Queen's Park 8 1 1 6 4:13 4
10 Morton 9 0 1 8 5:17 1
Promotion - Premiership 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Premiership (Relegation)
Promotion - Premiership (Relegation)
Relegation - Championship (Relegation)
Relegation - League One 2027/2028 (Main)