Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ayr vs Morton - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Scotland Scotland

Championship Somerset Park, Ayr
Ayr Logo

Ayr

1 - 1
FT
Morton Logo

Morton

Our Tip

Match Events

37'
McBeth L.
42'
Gillespie G.
44' Event
Murphy J.
(Penalty)
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Championship matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Ayr
15%
Draws
0%
Morton
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ayr

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Ayr lately — more wins on the board than Morton.
  • Win probability leans Ayr's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Ayr Clean Sheet 68%
Morton Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ayr Morton
Matches Played 27 27
Wins 11 3
Draws 4 5
Losses 12 19
Goals Scored 1.3 0.67
Goals Conceded 1.22 1.7
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 29, 2026 Championship
Ayr vs Morton
1:1
Mar 21, 2026 Championship
Ayr vs Morton
0:1
Dec 27, 2025 Championship
Morton vs Ayr
1:1
Oct 18, 2025 Championship
Ayr vs Morton
2:1
Aug 23, 2025 Championship
Morton vs Ayr
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ayr Compare

Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Morton Compare

Top Goalscorer Brophy E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ayr 95 / 100
Morton 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ayr Morton

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ayr Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Morton let in goals in 81% of their last 27 matches.

Difficult form: Morton registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.

Ayr found the back of the net in 74% of recent matches (27 games).

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Ayr VS Morton
0.88 Goals Scored 0.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Ayr

(Home)
03 Oct
Livingston
1 : 2
Ayr
25 Sept
Ayr
0 : 1
Stenhousemuir
18 Sept
Queen's Park
0 : 2
Ayr
12 Sept
Ayr
1 : 3
Inverness
05 Sept
Partick
1 : 0
Ayr
Page 1 of 6

Morton

(Away)
03 Oct
Morton
1 : 2
Raith
25 Sept
Inverness
2 : 0
Morton
19 Sept
Morton
0 : 1
Dunfermline
11 Sept
Morton
1 : 4
Livingston
05 Sept
Queen's Park
2 : 1
Morton
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Stenhousemuir 8 7 1 0 12:2 22
2 Raith 9 5 2 2 13:6 17
3 Partick 8 4 3 1 8:2 15
4 Livingston 9 4 1 4 13:9 13
5 Dunfermline 7 3 3 1 6:4 12
6 Ayr 9 3 2 4 9:10 11
7 Arbroath 9 3 2 4 6:13 11
8 Inverness 8 2 4 2 9:9 10
9 Queen's Park 8 1 1 6 4:13 4
10 Morton 9 0 1 8 5:17 1
Promotion - Premiership 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Premiership (Relegation)
Promotion - Premiership (Relegation)
Relegation - Championship (Relegation)
Relegation - League One 2027/2028 (Main)