Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ayr vs Morton

Scotland Scotland

Championship Somerset Park, Ayr
Sat, Aug 29, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ayr host Morton in the Championship. Little to choose between these two on current form. Morton have shipped 1.82 goals a game lately, while Ayr have conceded 1.34 and scored 1.38. Past meetings favor Morton slightly — 1-2-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Mar 21, 2026, ending 0:1. Model xG sits at 1.69 vs 0.75, favoring Ayr. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Ayr
15%
Draws
0%
Morton
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ayr

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Ayr lately — more wins on the board than Morton.
  • Win probability leans Ayr's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Ayr Clean Sheet 20%
Morton Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ayr Morton
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 11 4
Draws 6 6
Losses 12 18
Goals Scored 1.38 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.34 1.82
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 Championship
Ayr vs Morton
0:1
Dec 27, 2025 Championship
Morton vs Ayr
1:1
Oct 18, 2025 Championship
Ayr vs Morton
2:1
Aug 23, 2025 Championship
Morton vs Ayr
2:2
Mar 8, 2025 Championship
Morton vs Ayr
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ayr 85 / 100
Morton 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ayr Morton

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ayr Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Morton let in goals in 82% of their last 28 matches.

Difficult form: Morton registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.

Ayr found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (29 games).

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Ayr VS Morton
2.13 Goals Scored 0
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Ayr

(Home)
14 Aug
Kilmarnock
3 : 2
Ayr
08 Aug
Dunfermline
1 : 1
Ayr
01 Aug
Ayr
2 : 0
Arbroath
25 Jul
Ayr
4 : 1
Alloa
18 Jul
Ayr
2 : 0
Edinburgh City
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Morton

(Away)
08 Aug
Stenhousemuir
2 : 0
Morton
01 Aug
Morton
0 : 1
Partick
25 Jul
Morton
0 : 1
Inverness
18 Jul
St Johnstone
3 : 0
Morton
14 Jul
East Fife
2 : 0
Morton
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Partick 2 2 0 0 3:0 6
2 Ayr 2 1 1 0 3:1 4
3 Stenhousemuir 2 1 1 0 3:1 4
4 Raith 2 1 1 0 3:2 4
5 Livingston 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
6 Dunfermline 2 0 2 0 1:1 2
7 Inverness 2 0 2 0 0:0 2
8 Arbroath 2 0 1 1 0:2 1
9 Queen's Park 2 0 0 2 1:4 0
10 Morton 2 0 0 2 0:3 0
Promotion - Premiership 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Premiership (Relegation)
Promotion - Premiership (Relegation)
Relegation - Championship (Relegation)
Relegation - League One 2027/2028 (Main)