Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ayr vs St Johnstone

Scotland Scotland

Championship 2025/2026 Somerset Park, Ayr
Our Tip

Match Events

37' Event
Fotheringham K.
Assist: Holt J.
59'
Sub
Mallan S. In: Stanton S.
Out: Mallan S.
59'
Sub
Steven T. In: Fowler J.
Out: Steven T.

AI Match Summary

St Johnstone in this Championship 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored St Johnstone.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Ayr
30%
Draws
31%
St Johnstone
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Ayr

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • St Johnstone have won more games recently than Ayr.
  • Win probability leans Ayr's way, sitting at 42%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Championship 2025/2026 fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Ayr Clean Sheet 20%
St Johnstone Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ayr St Johnstone
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 11 16
Draws 6 6
Losses 11 6
Goals Scored 1.39 1.86
Goals Conceded 1.32 0.86
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 1, 2026 Championship
Ayr vs St Johnstone
0:1
Feb 28, 2026 Championship
St Johnstone vs Ayr
3:1
Feb 17, 2026 Challenge Cup
St Johnstone vs Ayr
3:4
Dec 12, 2025 Championship
Ayr vs St Johnstone
2:4
Oct 4, 2025 Championship
St Johnstone vs Ayr
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ayr Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

St Johnstone Compare

Top Goalscorer Fotheringham K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ayr 42 / 100
St Johnstone 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ayr St Johnstone

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.

Ayr's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Recent resilience: Ayr stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Away concern: St Johnstone has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Ayr VS St Johnstone
1.5 Goals Scored 1.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Ayr

(Home)
29 Aug
Ayr
1 : 1
Morton
22 Aug
Raith
2 : 0
Ayr
14 Aug
Kilmarnock
3 : 2
Ayr
08 Aug
Dunfermline
1 : 1
Ayr
01 Aug
Ayr
2 : 0
Arbroath
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St Johnstone

(Away)
02 Sept
Dundee FC
1 : 1
St Johnstone
29 Aug
Hearts
2 : 1
St Johnstone
08 Aug
St. Mirren
1 : 0
St Johnstone
02 Aug
St Johnstone
4 : 3
Kilmarnock
25 Jul
St Johnstone
1 : 2
East Fife
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 St Johnstone 36 22 11 3 67:25 77
2 Partick 36 17 15 4 53:36 66
3 Arbroath 36 13 13 10 43:41 52
4 Dunfermline 36 14 9 13 52:41 51
5 Raith 36 12 9 15 43:42 45
6 Queen's Park 36 9 14 13 35:48 41
7 Ayr 36 8 15 13 38:47 39
8 Morton 36 8 14 14 36:52 38
9 Airdrieonians 36 8 12 16 35:49 36
10 Ross County 36 8 10 18 36:57 34
Promotion - Premiership (Main)
Promotion - Championship 2025/2026 (Promotion)
Promotion - Championship 2025/2026 (Promotion)
Relegation - Championship 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - League One (Main)