Sport Picks

Stadium Background

AZ Alkmaar vs H. Beer Sheva Prediction & H2H Stats

Europe Europe

Europa League AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar
Thu, Oct 15, 2026
VS
04:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

AZ Alkmaar host H. Beer Sheva in the Europa League. This has the makings of an open, high-scoring game. Recent numbers: AZ Alkmaar at 2.25 goals for, 1.11 against; H. Beer Sheva at 1.68 for, 1.57 against. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. Model xG sits at 2.19 vs 1.25, favoring AZ Alkmaar. AI goal market prediction: Over 2.5, BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
AZ Alkmaar
30%
Draws
31%
H. Beer Sheva
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: AZ Alkmaar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to AZ Alkmaar lately — more wins on the board than H. Beer Sheva.
  • 39% — that's where the model lands on AZ Alkmaar taking it.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Europa League fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
AZ Alkmaar Clean Sheet 19%
H. Beer Sheva Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AZ Alkmaar H. Beer Sheva
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 16 14
Draws 8 5
Losses 4 9
Goals Scored 2.25 1.68
Goals Conceded 1.11 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 2.19 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AZ Alkmaar 58 / 100
H. Beer Sheva 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AZ Alkmaar H. Beer Sheva

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AZ Alkmaar Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AZ Alkmaar found the back of the net in 82% of recent matches (28 games).

H. Beer Sheva has conceded goals in 64% of their last 28 outings.

AZ Alkmaar went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

H. Beer Sheva lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

AZ Alkmaar VS H. Beer Sheva
2.25 Goals Scored 1.63
0.88 Goals Conceded 2.13
75% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

AZ Alkmaar

(Home)
20 Sept
AZ Alkmaar
1 : 0
Telstar
16 Sept
Sunderland
1 : 0
AZ Alkmaar
11 Sept
AZ Alkmaar
1 : 1
Willem II
06 Sept
Heerenveen
2 : 3
AZ Alkmaar
29 Aug
AZ Alkmaar
5 : 2
G.A. Eagles
Page 1 of 6

H. Beer Sheva

(Away)
19 Sept
H. Beer Sheva
1 : 0
Shmona
16 Sept
H. Beer Sheva
0 : 0
Din. Zagreb
13 Sept
Hapoel Petah Tikva
0 : 2
H. Beer Sheva
07 Sept
H. Beer Sheva
1 : 4
Maccabi Tel Aviv
02 Sept
H. Beer Sheva
2 : 2
Hapoel Haifa
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Juventus 1 1 0 0 5:0 3
2 Crystal Palace 1 1 0 0 4:0 3
3 Sparta Prague 1 1 0 0 4:1 3
4 Besiktas 1 1 0 0 4:1 3
5 Royale Union SG 1 1 0 0 3:0 3
6 Ferencvaros 1 1 0 0 3:1 3
7 Benfica 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
8 Bayer Leverkusen 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
9 OFI Crete 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
10 Bournemouth 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
11 Lyon 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
12 Torreense 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
13 Olympiacos Piraeus 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
14 Salzburg 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
15 Sunderland 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
16 Omonia 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
17 Sturm Graz 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
18 Rennes 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
19 Din. Zagreb 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
20 H. Beer Sheva 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
21 Jagiellonia 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
22 Real Sociedad 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
23 Anderlecht 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
24 Lillestrom 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
25 Celta Vigo 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
26 AZ Alkmaar 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
27 Levski Sofia 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
28 Celtic 1 0 0 1 1:3 0
29 Hoffenheim 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
30 AC Milan 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
31 Celje 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
32 Marseille 1 0 0 1 1:4 0
33 Ararat-Armenia 1 0 0 1 1:4 0
34 Plzen 1 0 0 1 0:3 0
35 Lech Poznan 1 0 0 1 0:4 0
36 Nijmegen 1 0 0 1 0:5 0
Promotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)