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Netherlands

Eredivisie Women 2025/2026 AFAS Trainingscomplex

SBV Excelsior W

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

AZ Alkmaar W play SBV Excelsior W in the Eredivisie Women 2025/2026. AZ Alkmaar W are favorites here. Recently, AZ Alkmaar W averaged 1.75 goals scored and 2.04 conceded. SBV Excelsior W averaged 1.19 goals scored and 2.15 conceded. In past meetings, AZ Alkmaar W won 5, SBV Excelsior W won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 22, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.00 for AZ Alkmaar W and 1.19 for SBV Excelsior W. This points to a AZ Alkmaar W double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%

AZ Alkmaar W

15%

Draws

21%

SBV Excelsior W

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: AZ Alkmaar W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

90% / Very High Confidence

AZ Alkmaar W picked up more points recently compared to SBV Excelsior W.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.00 vs 1.19 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 67%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 67%

Over 3.5 Goals 40%

Over 4.5 Goals 20%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63%

AZ Alkmaar W Clean Sheet 20%

SBV Excelsior W Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 74%

Second Half Goal 78%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	AZ Alkmaar W	SBV Excelsior W
Matches Played	28	27
Wins	9	5
Draws	7	2
Losses	12	20
Goals Scored	1.75	1.19
Goals Conceded	2.04	2.15
Expected Goals (xG)	1.63	0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.63	2.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 22, 2026 Eredivisie Women

AZ Alkmaar W vs SBV Excelsior W

Possession: 56% - 43% Cards: 0 - 3

1:0

Sep 21, 2025 Eredivisie Women

SBV Excelsior W vs AZ Alkmaar W

Possession: 47% - 42% Cards: 2 - 1

1:3

Apr 19, 2025 Eredivisie Women

SBV Excelsior W vs AZ Alkmaar W

Possession: 56% - 49% Cards: 2 - 3

1:3

Oct 19, 2024 Eredivisie Women

AZ Alkmaar W vs SBV Excelsior W

Possession: 44% - 58% Cards: 3 - 4

4:0

Jan 28, 2024 Eredivisie Women

SBV Excelsior W vs AZ Alkmaar W

Possession: 49% - 56% Cards: 3 - 2

1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AZ Alkmaar W Compare

Top Goalscorer van Lunteren D.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.81

SBV Excelsior W Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AZ Alkmaar W 62 / 100

SBV Excelsior W 21 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

AZ Alkmaar W SBV Excelsior W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AZ Alkmaar W Win (1)

Secondary Pick AZ Alkmaar W & Over 2.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +14.6%

1.79

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +9.9%

1.64

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

AZ Alkmaar W attacking → ← attacking SBV Excelsior W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AZ Alkmaar W scored in 82% of their last 28 games.

SBV Excelsior W let in goals in 96% of their last 27 matches.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

AZ Alkmaar W went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

SBV Excelsior W lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

34 Points in last 5 17

1.63 Goals expected (xG) 0.75

1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.38

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	PSV W	22	17	3	2	56:15	54
2	Ajax W	22	15	5	2	55:18	50
3	Feyenoord W	22	14	5	3	45:17	47
4	Twente W	22	14	4	4	55:19	46
5	Utrecht W	22	11	4	7	41:37	37
6	PEC Zwolle W	22	11	1	10	35:32	34
7	Heerenveen W	22	8	2	12	38:51	26
8	AZ Alkmaar W	22	6	6	10	36:46	24
9	Den Haag W	22	6	4	12	24:45	22
10	Hera United W	22	5	5	12	24:42	20
11	SBV Excelsior W	22	2	2	18	18:51	8
12	NAC Breda W	22	2	1	19	17:71	7