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Azam vs Mbeya City - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Tanzania Tanzania

Ligi Kuu Bara Azam Complex Stadium, Dar es Salaam
Wed, Oct 28, 2026
VS
03:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Azam host Mbeya City in the Ligi Kuu Bara. Chances could be at a premium in this fixture. Recent numbers: Azam at 1.59 goals for, 0.62 against; Mbeya City at 0.9 for, 1.31 against. Past meetings favor Azam slightly — 3-1-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 9, 2026, ending 0:0. The numbers (0.94 xG vs 1.00) point toward Azam. Over 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Azam
20%
Draws
33%
Mbeya City
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Azam

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Mbeya City haven't matched Azam's recent run of results.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on Azam taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63.8%
Azam Clean Sheet 20%
Mbeya City Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Azam Mbeya City
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 19 9
Draws 6 9
Losses 4 11
Goals Scored 1.59 0.9
Goals Conceded 0.62 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 9, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mbeya City vs Azam
0:0
Sep 24, 2025 Ligi Kuu Bara
Azam vs Mbeya City
2:0
Dec 31, 2022 Ligi Kuu Bara
Azam vs Mbeya City
6:1
Sep 13, 2022 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mbeya City vs Azam
0:1
May 10, 2022 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mbeya City vs Azam
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Azam 67 / 100
Mbeya City 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Azam Mbeya City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Azam Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Azam's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Mbeya City's defensive record shows goals conceded in 62% of 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Azam has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Azam VS Mbeya City
1.38 Goals Scored 1
1 Goals Conceded 0.5
88% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Azam

(Home)
09 Oct
Coastal Union
0 : 2
Azam
16 Sept
Azam
0 : 2
Simba
07 Sept
Azam
2 : 0
Namungo
31 Aug
Kagera Sugar
0 : 2
Azam
28 Aug
Geita Gold
2 : 2
Azam
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Mbeya City

(Away)
09 Oct
Mbeya City
1 : 3
Kagera Sugar
12 Sept
Polisi Tanzania
2 : 0
Mbeya City
04 Sept
TRA United
0 : 0
Mbeya City
28 Aug
Fountain Gate
0 : 2
Mbeya City
23 Aug
Mbeya City
2 : 1
Mashujaa
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Simba 8 8 0 0 19:4 24
2 Young Africans 7 6 0 1 17:4 18
3 Azam 8 5 2 1 13:7 17
4 Mashujaa 8 4 0 4 9:13 12
5 Singida Black Stars 8 3 2 3 14:11 11
6 Dodoma Jiji 7 3 2 2 5:5 11
7 Polisi Tanzania 7 3 1 3 10:9 10
8 Mbeya City 7 3 1 3 7:7 10
9 JKT Tanzania 7 3 1 3 9:11 10
10 Coastal Union 8 3 1 4 7:11 10
11 Namungo 8 3 0 5 7:11 9
12 Geita Gold 7 2 1 4 9:12 7
13 TRA United 7 1 3 3 6:7 6
14 Kagera Sugar 7 1 2 4 8:15 5
15 Pamba 7 1 1 5 8:13 4
16 Fountain Gate 7 1 1 5 3:11 4
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligi Kuu Bara (Relegation)