Sport Picks

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Azam vs Mbeya Kwanza

Tanzania Tanzania

Ligi Kuu Bara 2021/2022
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Chilunda S.
82' Event
Mbombo I.
Assist: Dube P.

AI Match Summary

Azam in this Ligi Kuu Bara 2021/2022 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Azam.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Azam
15%
Draws
0%
Mbeya Kwanza
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Azam

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Azam have won more games recently than Mbeya Kwanza.
  • Model gives Azam a 85% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Ligi Kuu Bara 2021/2022 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 23.200000000000003%
Azam Clean Sheet 68%
Mbeya Kwanza Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Azam Mbeya Kwanza
Matches Played 42 30
Wins 30 4
Draws 7 6
Losses 5 20
Goals Scored 1.71 0.57
Goals Conceded 0.6 1.6
Expected Goals (xG) 2.69 0.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 15, 2022 Ligi Kuu Bara
Azam vs Mbeya Kwanza
2:0
Jan 18, 2022 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mbeya Kwanza vs Azam
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Azam Compare

Top Goalscorer Chilunda S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mbombo I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.07
Avg xA / game 1.34

Mbeya Kwanza Compare

Avg xG / game 0.51
Avg xA / game 0.31

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Azam 95 / 100
Mbeya Kwanza 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Azam Mbeya Kwanza

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Azam Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mbeya Kwanza let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Away concern: Mbeya Kwanza has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: Azam scored in 79% of their last 42 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.50 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Azam VS Mbeya Kwanza
1.88 Goals Scored 0.5
0.63 Goals Conceded 3.5
88% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 100%
13% Over 3.5 100%

Recent Form & Match History

Azam

(Home)
16 Sept
Azam
0 : 2
Simba
07 Sept
Azam
2 : 0
Namungo
31 Aug
Kagera Sugar
0 : 2
Azam
28 Aug
Geita Gold
2 : 2
Azam
23 Aug
Azam
2 : 1
Pamba
Page 1 of 9

Mbeya Kwanza

(Away)
05 Jul
Polisi Tanzania
3 : 1
Mbeya Kwanza
28 Jun
Mbeya Kwanza
0 : 4
Polisi Tanzania
13 Mar
JKT Tanzania
3 : 0
Mbeya Kwanza
26 May
Mbeya Kwanza
0 : 2
Biashara Mara United
19 May
Biashara Mara United
2 : 0
Mbeya Kwanza
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Young Africans 30 22 8 0 49:8 74
2 Simba 30 17 10 3 41:14 61
3 Azam 30 14 7 9 41:28 49
4 Geita Gold 30 12 10 8 32:26 46
5 Namungo 30 10 11 9 42:34 41
6 Kagera Sugar 30 9 12 9 20:25 39
7 Coastal Union 30 10 8 12 22:31 38
8 Polisi Tanzania 30 8 13 9 21:23 37
9 Mbeya City 30 8 13 9 25:29 37
10 Kinondoni MC 30 8 11 11 34:35 35
11 Dodoma Jiji 30 9 8 13 25:37 35
12 Ruvu Shooting 30 8 10 12 28:39 34
13 Mtibwa Sugar 30 7 10 13 25:34 31
14 Tanzania Prisons 30 7 8 15 21:34 29
15 Biashara Mara United 30 5 13 12 23:35 28
16 Mbeya Kwanza 30 5 10 15 22:39 25
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2022/2023 (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligi Kuu Bara 2021/2022 (Relegation)
Relegation - Ligi Kuu Bara 2021/2022 (Relegation)