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Baerum vs Lorenskog

Norway Norway

OBOS Supercup
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Baerum play Lorenskog in the OBOS Supercup. It looks like a close match. Recently, Baerum averaged 2.76 goals scored and 2 conceded. Lorenskog averaged 2.31 goals scored and 1.21 conceded. In past meetings, Baerum won 4, Lorenskog won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jan 25, 2026 ended 2:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.88 for Baerum and 2.19 for Lorenskog. This points to a Lorenskog double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Baerum
21%
Draws
42%
Lorenskog
Draw rate projection: 21% Favored: Lorenskog

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Baerum picked up more points recently compared to Lorenskog.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.88 vs 2.19 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 76%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 90%
Over 2.5 Goals 76%
Over 3.5 Goals 46%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Baerum Clean Sheet 10%
Lorenskog Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 81%
Second Half Goal 86%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Baerum Lorenskog
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 18
Draws 7 5
Losses 10 6
Goals Scored 2.76 2.31
Goals Conceded 2 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 2.63 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.13 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 25, 2026 OBOS Supercup
Baerum vs Lorenskog
2:2
Feb 15, 2025 OBOS Supercup
Baerum vs Lorenskog
2:0
May 20, 2007 NM Cup
Baerum vs Lorenskog
2:0
Aug 12, 2006 Division 2 - Group 1
Lorenskog vs Baerum
1:2
Apr 29, 2006 Division 2 - Group 1
Baerum vs Lorenskog
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Baerum Compare

Top Goalscorer Coric K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bransdal L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.02
Avg xA / game 1.31

Lorenskog Compare

Top Goalscorer Henriksen J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Werni S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Baerum 35 / 100
Lorenskog 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Baerum Lorenskog

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Lorenskog or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +27.6%
3.45
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +8.7%
1.43
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Baerum attacking → ← attacking Lorenskog

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Baerum scored in 93% of their last 29 games.

Lorenskog let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Baerum went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Lorenskog lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

43 Points in last 5 59
2.63 Goals expected (xG) 2.25
2.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Eidsvold TF42208:68
2Grorud41305:36
3Lorenskog41218:85
4Eik-Tonsberg41128:94
5Baerum40227:102
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Skeid431014:610
2Honefoss421113:87
3Asker42029:96
4Ull/Kisa41128:104
5Lokomotiv Oslo40133:141