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Baghdad vs Al-Karma

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Our Tip

Match Events

31' Event
Salem H.
66' Event
Talib H.
75' Event
Abdelkader A.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League game between Baghdad and Al-Karma finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Baghdad.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Baghdad
6%
Draws
90%
Al-Karma
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Al-Karma

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Al-Karma carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Al-Karma a 90% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Stars League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Baghdad Clean Sheet 23%
Al-Karma Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Baghdad Al-Karma
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 5 12
Draws 7 12
Losses 18 5
Goals Scored 1.38 1
Goals Conceded 2 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 30, 2026 Stars League
Baghdad vs Al-Karma
2:1
Jan 22, 2026 Stars League
Al-Karma vs Baghdad
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Baghdad Compare

Top Goalscorer Salem H.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Talib H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Al-Karma Compare

Top Goalscorer Abdelkader A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Baghdad 10 / 100
Al-Karma 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Baghdad Al-Karma

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ALK Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Baghdad's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Al-Karma's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Baghdad stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Baghdad VS Al-Karma
1.38 Goals Scored 1
2 Goals Conceded 0.63
88% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 25%
63% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Baghdad

(Home)
08 Jun
Baghdad
0 : 1
Karbala
02 Jun
Erbil
3 : 1
Baghdad
27 May
Baghdad
1 : 3
Al Gharraf
19 May
Diyala
1 : 4
Baghdad
15 May
Baghdad
0 : 1
Al Kahraba
Page 1 of 6

Al-Karma

(Away)
02 Jun
Al Kahraba
0 : 3
Al-Karma
27 May
Al-Karma
1 : 0
Diyala
19 May
Al Talaba
1 : 1
Al-Karma
14 May
Naft Missan
1 : 1
Al-Karma
10 May
Al-Karma
3 : 0
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Al Quwa Al Jawiya38278362:2889
2Al Shorta38248669:3280
3Erbil382310559:3279
4Al Zawraa381715650:3266
5Al-Karma381714753:2665
6Al Talaba381811953:3865
7Al Karkh3816121051:4160
8Newroz381661648:4754
9Zakho3814111349:4553
10Duhok3813111444:4550
11Diyala3813101540:4249
12Al Naft3811151233:3448
13Al Mosul3811141346:4947
14Al Gharraf3811111640:4344
15Naft Missan3811101748:5743
16Al Minaa389131638:4740
17Al Kahraba371152144:5638
18Baghdad381072147:6837
19Al Najaf37652631:6823
20Al-Qassim38063221:966
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)