Sport Picks
Match Events
10'
10'
Jaulu H.
54'
54'
Abdel Amir M.
76'
76'
Mehesen A.
AI Match Summary
The Stars League 2025/2026 game between Baghdad and Al Qassim finished 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
64%
15%
21%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Baghdad
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
64%
/ High Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Baghdad come out ahead of Al Qassim on wins alone.
- 64% — that's where the model lands on Baghdad taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Baghdad Clean Sheet 68%
Al Qassim Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Baghdad | Al Qassim |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 5 | 0 |
| Draws | 7 | 5 |
| Losses | 18 | 24 |
| Goals Scored | 1.2 | 1.93 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.9 | 1.48 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 2, 2026 Stars League
Baghdad vs Al Qassim
2:2
Sep 26, 2025 Stars League
Al Qassim vs Baghdad
0:1
Jun 18, 2024 Stars League
Al Qassim vs Baghdad
2:0
Oct 26, 2023 Stars League
Baghdad vs Al Qassim
0:1
Apr 20, 2022 Stars League
Baghdad vs Al Qassim
3:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Baghdad Compare
Top Goalscorer Jaulu H.
1 Goals Assists Leader Abdel Amir M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6
Al Qassim Compare
Top Goalscorer Mehesen A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Basim A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Baghdad 68 / 100
Al Qassim 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Baghdad Al Qassim
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Baghdad Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Baghdad's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Al Qassim has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.
These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.
Difficult form: Al Qassim registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Baghdad VS Al-Qassim
1.38 Goals Scored 1.5
2 Goals Conceded 2.5
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Baghdad
(Home) 08 Jun
Baghdad
0 : 1 Karbala
02 Jun
Erbil
3 : 1 Baghdad
27 May
Baghdad
1 : 3 Al Gharraf
19 May
Diyala
1 : 4 Baghdad
15 May
Baghdad
0 : 1 Al Kahraba
Page 1 of 6
08 Jun
Baghdad
0 : 1 Karbala
27 May
Baghdad
1 : 3 Al Gharraf
15 May
Baghdad
0 : 1 Al Kahraba
02 May
Baghdad
2 : 2 Al-Qassim
26 Apr
Baghdad
2 : 2 Al Zawraa
Page 1 of 3
Al Qassim
(Away) 01 Jun
Al Mosul
3 : 0 Al-Qassim
28 May
Al-Qassim
1 : 2 Al Najaf
19 May
Al-Qassim
2 : 5 Naft Missan
14 May
Al Zawraa
1 : 1 Al-Qassim
10 May
Duhok
2 : 1 Al-Qassim
Page 1 of 6
01 Jun
Al Mosul
3 : 0 Al-Qassim
14 May
Al Zawraa
1 : 1 Al-Qassim
10 May
Duhok
2 : 1 Al-Qassim
02 May
Baghdad
2 : 2 Al-Qassim
22 Apr
Al Shorta
3 : 1 Al-Qassim
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 38 | 27 | 8 | 3 | 62:28 | 89 |
| 2 | Al Shorta | 38 | 24 | 8 | 6 | 69:32 | 80 |
| 3 | Erbil | 38 | 23 | 10 | 5 | 59:32 | 79 |
| 4 | Al Zawraa | 38 | 17 | 15 | 6 | 50:32 | 66 |
| 5 | Al Karma | 38 | 17 | 14 | 7 | 53:26 | 65 |
| 6 | Al Talaba | 38 | 18 | 11 | 9 | 53:38 | 65 |
| 7 | Al Karkh | 38 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 51:41 | 60 |
| 8 | Newroz | 38 | 16 | 6 | 16 | 48:47 | 54 |
| 9 | Zakho | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 49:45 | 53 |
| 10 | Duhok | 38 | 13 | 11 | 14 | 44:45 | 50 |
| 11 | Diyala | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 40:42 | 49 |
| 12 | Al Naft | 38 | 11 | 15 | 12 | 33:34 | 48 |
| 13 | Al Mosul | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 46:49 | 47 |
| 14 | Al Gharraf | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 40:43 | 44 |
| 15 | Naft Missan | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 48:57 | 43 |
| 16 | Al Minaa | 38 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 38:47 | 40 |
| 17 | Al Kahraba | 37 | 11 | 5 | 21 | 44:56 | 38 |
| 18 | Baghdad | 38 | 10 | 7 | 21 | 47:68 | 37 |
| 19 | Al Najaf | 37 | 6 | 5 | 26 | 31:68 | 23 |
| 20 | Al Qassim | 38 | 0 | 6 | 32 | 21:96 | 6 |
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
