Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Baghdad vs Karbala

Iraq Iraq

Stars League 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

90' Event
Turky A.

AI Match Summary

Karbala in this Stars League 2025/2026 tie, finishing 0-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Baghdad
15%
Draws
42%
Karbala
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Baghdad

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Baghdad have won more games recently than Karbala.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Baghdad have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Karbala, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Baghdad Clean Sheet 20%
Karbala Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Baghdad Karbala
Matches Played 30 27
Wins 5 2
Draws 7 4
Losses 18 21
Goals Scored 1.2 0.67
Goals Conceded 1.9 1.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.35 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 8, 2026 Stars League
Baghdad vs Karbala
0:1
Jun 30, 2024 Stars League
Karbala vs Baghdad
1:2
Dec 23, 2023 Stars League
Baghdad vs Karbala
3:1
May 22, 2018 Stars League
Baghdad vs Karbala
0:1
Jan 10, 2018 Stars League
Karbala vs Baghdad
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Baghdad Compare

Avg xG / game 1.04
Avg xA / game 0.68

Karbala Compare

Top Goalscorer Turky A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Baghdad 32 / 100
Karbala 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Baghdad Karbala

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Karbala conceded in 89% of 27 recent games.

Attacking prowess: Baghdad scored in 73% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Difficult form: Karbala registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Baghdad VS Karbala
1.5 Goals Scored 0.25
2 Goals Conceded 0
100% Over 1.5 0%
88% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Baghdad

(Home)
08 Jun
Baghdad
0 : 1
Karbala
02 Jun
Erbil
3 : 1
Baghdad
27 May
Baghdad
1 : 3
Al Gharraf
19 May
Diyala
1 : 4
Baghdad
15 May
Baghdad
0 : 1
Al Kahraba
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Karbala

(Away)
08 Jun
Baghdad
0 : 1
Karbala
04 Jul
Karbala
2 : 3
Al-Hudod
27 Jun
Karbala
2 : 4
Al Naft
18 Jun
Newroz
1 : 0
Karbala
13 Jun
Karbala
0 : 2
Al-Karma
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Baghdad 0
Karbala 1