Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Baghdad vs Karbala

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Our Tip

Match Events

90' Event
Turky A.

AI Match Summary

Karbala in this Stars League tie, finishing 0-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Baghdad
39%
Draws
31%
Karbala
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Baghdad have won more games recently than Karbala.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Baghdad have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Karbala, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Baghdad Clean Sheet 19%
Karbala Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Baghdad Karbala
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 5 2
Draws 7 5
Losses 18 22
Goals Scored 1.5 0.5
Goals Conceded 2 0
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 8, 2026 Stars League
Baghdad vs Karbala
0:1
Jun 30, 2024 Stars League
Karbala vs Baghdad
1:2
Dec 23, 2023 Stars League
Baghdad vs Karbala
3:1
May 22, 2018 Stars League
Baghdad vs Karbala
0:1
Jan 10, 2018 Stars League
Karbala vs Baghdad
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Baghdad Compare

Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Karbala Compare

Top Goalscorer Turky A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Baghdad 31 / 100
Karbala 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Baghdad Karbala

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BAG Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Karbala conceded in 86% of 29 recent games.

Attacking prowess: Baghdad scored in 73% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Difficult form: Karbala registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Baghdad VS Karbala
1.5 Goals Scored 0.5
2 Goals Conceded 0
100% Over 1.5 0%
88% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Baghdad

(Home)
08 Jun
Baghdad
0 : 1
Karbala
02 Jun
Erbil
3 : 1
Baghdad
27 May
Baghdad
1 : 3
Al Gharraf
19 May
Diyala
1 : 4
Baghdad
15 May
Baghdad
0 : 1
Al Kahraba
Page 1 of 6

Karbala

(Away)
08 Jun
Baghdad
0 : 1
Karbala
04 Jul
Karbala
2 : 3
Al-Hudod
27 Jun
Karbala
2 : 4
Al Naft
18 Jun
Newroz
1 : 0
Karbala
13 Jun
Karbala
0 : 2
Al-Karma
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Baghdad0
Karbala1