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Baglan Dragons vs Afan Lido - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Wales Wales

Cymru South
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Jones T.
29' Event
Jones T.
68' Event
Baker J.

AI Match Summary

The Cymru South game between Baglan Dragons and Afan Lido finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Baglan Dragons.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Baglan Dragons
20%
Draws
29%
Afan Lido
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Baglan Dragons

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Afan Lido come out ahead of Baglan Dragons on wins alone.
  • Model gives Baglan Dragons a 51% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Baglan Dragons Clean Sheet 18%
Afan Lido Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Baglan Dragons Afan Lido
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 8 10
Draws 6 3
Losses 14 16
Goals Scored 0.82 1.41
Goals Conceded 1.61 1.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 4, 2026 Cymru South
Baglan Dragons vs Afan Lido
2:1
Dec 26, 2025 Cymru South
Baglan Dragons vs Afan Lido
3:1
Oct 10, 2025 Cymru South
Afan Lido vs Baglan Dragons
1:1
Feb 8, 2025 Cymru South
Baglan Dragons vs Afan Lido
1:1
Oct 4, 2024 Cymru South
Afan Lido vs Baglan Dragons
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Baglan Dragons Compare

Top Goalscorer Jones T.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Afan Lido Compare

Top Goalscorer Baker J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Baglan Dragons 58 / 100
Afan Lido 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Baglan Dragons Afan Lido

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Baglan Dragons Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Afan Lido's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Baglan Dragons remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Afan Lido's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Baglan Dragons VS Afan Lido
1.25 Goals Scored 1.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.13
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Baglan Dragons

(Home)
30 Oct
Baglan Dragons
0 : 1
Treowen
17 Oct
Llantwit Fardre
1 : 3
Baglan Dragons
10 Oct
Baglan Dragons
1 : 1
Pontypridd United
02 Oct
Llanelli
1 : 2
Baglan Dragons
25 Sept
Baglan Dragons
1 : 2
Carmarthen Town
Page 1 of 6

Afan Lido

(Away)
31 Oct
Cardiff Draconians
2 : 0
Afan Lido
23 Oct
Llanelli
0 : 3
Afan Lido
18 Oct
Afan Lido
2 : 3
Penybont
09 Oct
Afan Lido
5 : 5
Pure Swansea
02 Oct
Caerau Ely
2 : 0
Afan Lido
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pontypridd United 13 8 3 2 35:22 27
2 Aberystwyth 10 7 1 2 24:10 22
3 Caerau Ely 13 7 1 5 24:23 22
4 Pure Swansea 10 6 3 1 32:15 21
5 Baglan Dragons 13 6 2 5 14:14 20
6 Ynyshir Albions 11 5 4 2 20:13 19
7 Afan Lido 14 5 3 6 24:26 18
8 Treowen 12 5 2 5 22:23 17
9 Trethomas Bluebirds 12 4 4 4 24:21 16
10 Carmarthen Town 12 4 3 5 24:26 15
11 Pontardawe 11 4 2 5 20:21 14
12 Caerphilly 13 4 2 7 17:24 14
13 Newport City 11 3 4 4 21:17 13
14 Cardiff Draconians 10 3 3 4 14:17 12
15 Llantwit Major 11 3 2 6 12:24 11
16 Llanelli 14 0 3 11 12:43 3
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2027/2028 (Main)