Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Baglan Dragons vs Afan Lido

Wales Wales

Cymru South
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Jones T.
29' Event
Jones T.
68' Event
Baker J.

AI Match Summary

The Cymru South game between Baglan Dragons and Afan Lido finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Baglan Dragons.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Baglan Dragons
15%
Draws
37%
Afan Lido
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Baglan Dragons

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Afan Lido come out ahead of Baglan Dragons on wins alone.
  • Model gives Baglan Dragons a 48% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Baglan Dragons Clean Sheet 19%
Afan Lido Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Baglan Dragons Afan Lido
Matches Played 32 32
Wins 8 12
Draws 7 3
Losses 17 17
Goals Scored 0.81 1.34
Goals Conceded 1.81 1.84
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 4, 2026 Cymru South
Baglan Dragons vs Afan Lido
2:1
Dec 26, 2025 Cymru South
Baglan Dragons vs Afan Lido
3:1
Oct 10, 2025 Cymru South
Afan Lido vs Baglan Dragons
1:1
Feb 8, 2025 Cymru South
Baglan Dragons vs Afan Lido
1:1
Oct 4, 2024 Cymru South
Afan Lido vs Baglan Dragons
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Baglan Dragons Compare

Top Goalscorer Jones T.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Afan Lido Compare

Top Goalscorer Baker J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Baglan Dragons 85 / 100
Afan Lido 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Baglan Dragons Afan Lido

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Baglan Dragons Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Afan Lido's defensive record shows goals conceded in 78% of 32 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Baglan Dragons remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Baglan Dragons's goal record stands at 53% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Baglan Dragons VS Afan Lido
1 Goals Scored 1.63
0.88 Goals Conceded 2.38
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Baglan Dragons

(Home)
12 Sept
Cardiff Draconians
2 : 1
Baglan Dragons
04 Sept
Baglan Dragons
2 : 1
Afan Lido
31 Aug
Baglan Dragons
0 : 1
Caerphilly
28 Aug
Baglan Dragons
3 : 1
Caerau Ely
21 Aug
Newport City
0 : 1
Baglan Dragons
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Afan Lido

(Away)
11 Sept
Pontypridd United
0 : 1
Afan Lido
04 Sept
Baglan Dragons
2 : 1
Afan Lido
31 Aug
Afan Lido
0 : 0
Ynyshir Albions
28 Aug
Trethomas Bluebirds
5 : 2
Afan Lido
21 Aug
Afan Lido
1 : 0
Pontardawe
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pure Swansea 6 5 1 0 22:5 16
2 Aberystwyth 6 5 0 1 19:7 15
3 Treowen 7 4 1 2 16:10 13
4 Pontypridd United 6 4 1 1 16:11 13
5 Baglan Dragons 8 4 1 3 8:8 13
6 Carmarthen Town 7 3 2 2 17:16 11
7 Caerau Ely 7 3 1 3 16:17 10
8 Afan Lido 8 3 1 4 13:15 10
9 Trethomas Bluebirds 7 2 3 2 14:13 9
10 Ynyshir Albions 6 2 3 1 6:5 9
11 Caerphilly 7 2 2 3 7:12 8
12 Cardiff Draconians 5 2 1 2 7:8 7
13 Newport City 5 2 0 3 9:5 6
14 Pontardawe 6 1 0 5 5:13 3
15 Llanelli 8 0 2 6 6:23 2
16 Llantwit Major 5 0 1 4 2:15 1
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2027/2028 (Main)