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Bahamas vs United States Virgin Islands - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Nations League Bethlehem Soccer Stadium, Upper Bethlehem
Our Tip

Match Events

30' Event
Henry N.
Assist: Liburd J.
35' Event
Chemaly O.
Own Goal
36'
Cooper P.

AI Match Summary

The CONCACAF Nations League game between Bahamas and United States Virgin Islands finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward United States Virgin Islands.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Bahamas
15%
Draws
85%
United States Virgin Islands
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: United States Virgin Islands

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and United States Virgin Islands come out ahead of Bahamas on wins alone.
  • Model gives United States Virgin Islands a 85% chance of winning this.
  • Regular CONCACAF Nations League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 79%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 79%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Bahamas Clean Sheet 10%
United States Virgin Islands Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bahamas United States Virgin Islands
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 3 6
Draws 4 4
Losses 23 20
Goals Scored 1 1.07
Goals Conceded 3.47 2.4
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 2.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 4, 2026 CONCACAF Nations League
Bahamas vs United States Virgin Islands
2:3
Sep 29, 2026 CONCACAF Nations League
United States Virgin Islands vs Bahamas
3:1
Oct 13, 2024 CONCACAF Nations League
Bahamas vs United States Virgin Islands
3:1
Sep 4, 2024 CONCACAF Nations League
United States Virgin Islands vs Bahamas
3:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bahamas Compare

Top Goalscorer Bayles W.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

United States Virgin Islands Compare

Top Goalscorer Henry N.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.5
Avg xA / game 1.53

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bahamas 10 / 100
United States Virgin Islands 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bahamas United States Virgin Islands

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick United States Virgin Islands Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:8
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

United States Virgin Islands's defensive record shows goals conceded in 97% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 4.75 goals as a typical output.

Bahamas's goal record stands at 60% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

United States Virgin Islands's recent record shows 2 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Bahamas VS United States Virgin Islands
0.88 Goals Scored 1.38
4.13 Goals Conceded 2.5
88% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 75%
75% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Bahamas

(Home)
06 Oct
Saint Martin
6 : 0
Bahamas
04 Oct
Bahamas
2 : 3
United States Virgin Islands
29 Sept
United States Virgin Islands
3 : 1
Bahamas
23 Sept
Bahamas
0 : 8
Saint Martin
30 Mar
Cayman Islands
1 : 0
Bahamas
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United States Virgin Islands

(Away)
04 Oct
Bahamas
2 : 3
United States Virgin Islands
01 Oct
United States Virgin Islands
0 : 5
Saint Martin
29 Sept
United States Virgin Islands
3 : 1
Bahamas
26 Sept
Saint Martin
0 : 2
United States Virgin Islands
29 Mar
Puerto Rico
2 : 0
United States Virgin Islands
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