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Bahia vs Coritiba - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Serie A Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador
Sat, Nov 21, 2026
VS
08:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Bahia host Coritiba in the Serie A. Recent head-to-head results give a strong hint here. Recent numbers: Bahia at 1.48 goals for, 1.52 against; Coritiba at 1.07 for, 1.62 against. Head-to-head, Bahia have won 4 to Coritiba's 1, with 0 draws. They last met on May 25, 2026, ending 3:2. The numbers (1.75 xG vs 1.19) point toward Bahia. AI prediction: Draw (X). Expect a competitive, tight affair.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Bahia
20%
Draws
29%
Coritiba
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Bahia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Bahia come out ahead of Coritiba on wins alone.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Bahia taking it.
  • Regular Serie A form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Bahia have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Bahia Clean Sheet 20%
Coritiba Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bahia Coritiba
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 7
Draws 9 9
Losses 10 13
Goals Scored 1.48 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.52 1.62
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 25, 2026 Serie A
Coritiba vs Bahia
3:2
Sep 14, 2023 Serie A
Coritiba vs Bahia
2:4
May 7, 2023 Serie A
Bahia vs Coritiba
3:1
Nov 16, 2020 Serie A
Coritiba vs Bahia
1:2
Aug 12, 2020 Serie A
Bahia vs Coritiba
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bahia 36 / 100
Coritiba 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bahia Coritiba

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Coritiba has conceded goals in 83% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.80 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Bahia scored in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Bahia has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Bahia VS Coritiba
1.38 Goals Scored 0.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 2.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Bahia

(Home)
06 Nov
Cruzeiro
3 : 2
Bahia
29 Oct
Bahia
3 : 2
Sao Paulo
25 Oct
Santos
1 : 1
Bahia
18 Oct
Bahia
0 : 3
Flamengo RJ
11 Oct
Bahia
1 : 0
Mirassol
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Coritiba

(Away)
04 Nov
Internacional
1 : 0
Coritiba
31 Oct
Coritiba
2 : 0
Vitoria
26 Oct
Coritiba
0 : 1
Gremio
17 Oct
Atletico-MG
1 : 0
Coritiba
12 Oct
Coritiba
1 : 1
Botafogo RJ
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Flamengo RJ 34 23 7 4 71:29 76
2 Palmeiras 34 21 10 3 62:23 73
3 Cruzeiro 34 18 6 10 55:48 60
4 Fluminense 34 16 9 9 55:42 57
5 Athletico-PR 34 15 9 10 51:43 54
6 Bahia 34 14 11 9 50:45 53
7 Atletico-MG 34 14 8 12 44:40 50
8 Bragantino 34 13 8 13 44:39 47
9 Santos 34 12 11 11 50:49 47
10 Sao Paulo 34 12 8 14 39:39 44
11 Botafogo RJ 34 11 9 14 46:53 42
12 Coritiba 34 11 9 14 40:51 42
13 Vasco 33 11 8 14 43:50 41
14 Mirassol 34 10 10 14 39:48 40
15 Vitoria 34 10 8 16 35:51 38
16 Internacional 34 9 11 14 38:42 38
17 Corinthians 34 9 10 15 36:42 37
18 Gremio 34 9 10 15 38:47 37
19 Remo 34 6 11 17 37:57 29
20 Chapecoense-SC 33 4 9 20 33:68 21
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana 2027 (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B 2027 (Main)