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Bahia vs Flamengo RJ - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Serie A Betano Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador
Sun, Oct 18, 2026
VS
09:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Bahia host Flamengo RJ in the Serie A Betano. Recent head-to-head results give a strong hint here. Flamengo RJ have shipped 0.79 goals a game lately, while Bahia have conceded 1.41 and scored 1.52. Past meetings favor Flamengo RJ slightly — 1-4-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 19, 2026, ending 2:0. Model xG sits at 1.10 vs 1.69, favoring Flamengo RJ. The model calls this a Draw — both sides look evenly matched.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Bahia
20%
Draws
44%
Flamengo RJ
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Flamengo RJ

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Flamengo RJ carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Bahia's way, sitting at 36%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Flamengo RJ have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Bahia Clean Sheet 13%
Flamengo RJ Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bahia Flamengo RJ
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 19
Draws 8 7
Losses 10 3
Goals Scored 1.52 1.93
Goals Conceded 1.41 0.79
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 Serie A Betano
Flamengo RJ vs Bahia
2:0
Oct 5, 2025 Serie A Betano
Bahia vs Flamengo RJ
1:0
May 11, 2025 Serie A Betano
Flamengo RJ vs Bahia
1:0
Oct 5, 2024 Serie A Betano
Bahia vs Flamengo RJ
0:2
Sep 13, 2024 Copa Betano do Brasil
Flamengo RJ vs Bahia
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bahia 35 / 100
Flamengo RJ 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bahia Flamengo RJ

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bahia found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (29 games).

Bahia has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Defensive concern: Flamengo RJ conceded in 55% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 1.40 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Bahia VS Flamengo RJ
1.57 Goals Scored 2.25
1.14 Goals Conceded 0.63
71% Over 1.5 88%
57% Over 2.5 63%
29% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Bahia

(Home)
09 Oct
Palmeiras
1 : 0
Bahia
20 Sept
Athletico-PR
2 : 1
Bahia
14 Sept
Bahia
2 : 1
Remo
05 Sept
Bragantino
2 : 3
Bahia
30 Aug
Bahia
3 : 2
Internacional
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Flamengo RJ

(Away)
08 Oct
Santos
2 : 2
Flamengo RJ
20 Sept
Flamengo RJ
2 : 1
Bragantino
18 Sept
Flamengo RJ
1 : 1
Independiente del Valle
13 Sept
Flamengo RJ
2 : 1
Corinthians
11 Sept
Independiente del Valle
0 : 2
Flamengo RJ
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Flamengo RJ 29 18 7 4 57:25 61
2 Palmeiras 29 17 9 3 48:21 60
3 Fluminense 29 14 9 6 48:36 51
4 Athletico-PR 29 14 8 7 45:34 50
5 Cruzeiro 29 14 6 9 44:40 48
6 Bahia 29 12 10 7 43:36 46
7 Atletico-MG 29 12 8 9 39:34 44
8 Santos 29 11 9 9 45:43 42
9 Coritiba 29 10 8 11 37:47 38
10 Bragantino 29 10 7 12 34:33 37
11 Sao Paulo 29 10 6 13 33:34 36
12 Vitoria 29 10 6 13 32:42 36
13 Botafogo RJ 29 9 8 12 42:47 35
14 Vasco 28 9 7 12 36:42 34
15 Mirassol 29 8 9 12 34:43 33
16 Corinthians 29 8 8 13 30:34 32
17 Internacional 29 7 10 12 32:37 31
18 Gremio 29 7 9 13 31:39 30
19 Remo 29 5 9 15 33:48 24
20 Chapecoense-SC 28 3 9 16 29:57 18
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana 2027 (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B 2027 (Main)