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Bahia vs Mirassol - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Serie A Betano Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
10:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Bahia host Mirassol in the Serie A Betano. This one's hard to separate. Recent numbers: Bahia at 1.57 goals for, 1.43 against; Mirassol at 1.22 for, 1.16 against. Past meetings favor Bahia slightly — 1-1-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 11, 2026, ending 1:2. xG projections (1.75 - 1.13) back Mirassol to edge this. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Bahia
15%
Draws
39%
Mirassol
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Bahia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Mirassol have won more games recently than Bahia.
  • 39% — that's where the model lands on Mirassol taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Bahia Clean Sheet 20%
Mirassol Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bahia Mirassol
Matches Played 28 32
Wins 11 13
Draws 8 8
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 1.57 1.22
Goals Conceded 1.43 1.16
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 Serie A Betano
Mirassol vs Bahia
1:2
Aug 31, 2025 Serie A Betano
Mirassol vs Bahia
5:1
Apr 13, 2025 Serie A Betano
Bahia vs Mirassol
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bahia 28 / 100
Mirassol 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bahia Mirassol

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mirassol Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Bahia scored in 86% of their last 28 outings.

Mirassol let in goals in 81% of their last 32 matches.

H2H data points to 3.67 goals as a typical output.

Bahia has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Bahia VS Mirassol
1.75 Goals Scored 1
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Bahia

(Home)
20 Sept
Athletico-PR
2 : 1
Bahia
14 Sept
Bahia
2 : 1
Remo
05 Sept
Bragantino
2 : 3
Bahia
30 Aug
Bahia
3 : 2
Internacional
23 Aug
Vitoria
0 : 2
Bahia
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Mirassol

(Away)
27 Sept
Uberlandia
0 : 4
Mirassol
19 Sept
Mirassol
2 : 0
Botafogo RJ
13 Sept
Mirassol
2 : 2
Vitoria
06 Sept
Coritiba
1 : 2
Mirassol
02 Sept
Flamengo RJ
2 : 0
Mirassol
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Flamengo RJ 28 18 6 4 55:23 60
2 Palmeiras 28 16 9 3 47:21 57
3 Athletico-PR 28 14 7 7 43:32 49
4 Fluminense 28 13 9 6 44:36 48
5 Bahia 28 12 10 6 43:35 46
6 Cruzeiro 28 13 6 9 42:40 45
7 Atletico-MG 28 12 7 9 37:32 43
8 Santos 28 11 8 9 43:41 41
9 Coritiba 28 10 8 10 37:43 38
10 Sao Paulo 28 10 6 12 33:32 36
11 Bragantino 28 10 6 12 33:32 36
12 Botafogo RJ 28 9 8 11 41:45 35
13 Vitoria 28 9 6 13 28:42 33
14 Corinthians 28 8 8 12 29:32 32
15 Mirassol 28 8 8 12 33:42 32
16 Vasco 27 8 7 12 34:41 31
17 Gremio 28 7 8 13 30:38 29
18 Internacional 28 6 10 12 30:36 28
19 Remo 28 5 8 15 32:47 23
20 Chapecoense-SC 27 3 9 15 29:53 18
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana 2027 (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B 2027 (Main)