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Bahia vs Montevideo City Prediction & H2H Stats

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Andrade L.
36'
37' Event
Willian Jose

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly game between Bahia and Montevideo City finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Bahia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Bahia
15%
Draws
39%
Montevideo City
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Bahia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Bahia haven't matched Montevideo City's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Bahia's way, sitting at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79%
Bahia Clean Sheet 10%
Montevideo City Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bahia Montevideo City
Matches Played 32 28
Wins 13 17
Draws 10 3
Losses 9 8
Goals Scored 1.63 1.86
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 1.67 1.90
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 4, 2026 Club Friendly
Bahia vs Montevideo City
4:1
May 26, 2021 Copa Sudamericana
Bahia vs Montevideo City
2:4
Apr 22, 2021 Copa Sudamericana
Montevideo City vs Bahia
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bahia Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodrigo Nestor
2 Goals
Assists Leader Willian Jose
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.28
Avg xA / game 0.83

Montevideo City Compare

Top Goalscorer Andrade L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.06

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bahia 40 / 100
Montevideo City 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bahia Montevideo City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bahia scored in 88% of their last 32 games.

Games between these two average 4.33 goals.

Montevideo City's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 28 matches.

Bahia went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Bahia VS Montevideo City
2.33 Goals Scored 2.13
1.67 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 88%
83% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Bahia

(Home)
20 Sept
Athletico-PR
2 : 1
Bahia
14 Sept
Bahia
2 : 1
Remo
05 Sept
Bragantino
2 : 3
Bahia
30 Aug
Bahia
3 : 2
Internacional
23 Aug
Vitoria
0 : 2
Bahia
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Montevideo City

(Away)
27 Sept
Montevideo City
0 : 2
Maldonado
24 Sept
Montevideo City
3 : 3
Atenas
21 Sept
Central Esp.
1 : 4
Montevideo City
18 Sept
Montevideo City
3 : 0
Cienciano
14 Sept
Montevideo City
3 : 1
Liverpool M.
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