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Bahia vs Montevideo City

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Bahia play Montevideo City in the Club Friendly. It looks like a close match. Recently, Bahia averaged 1.72 goals scored and 1.41 conceded. Montevideo City averaged 1.59 goals scored and 1.24 conceded. In past meetings, Bahia won 0, Montevideo City won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 26, 2021 ended 2:4. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.56 for Bahia and 1.75 for Montevideo City. This points to a Montevideo City double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Bahia
25%
Draws
40%
Montevideo City
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Montevideo City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Bahia picked up more points recently compared to Montevideo City.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.56 vs 1.75 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 60%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 80%
Over 2.5 Goals 60%
Over 3.5 Goals 36%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70%
Bahia Clean Sheet 12%
Montevideo City Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 72%
Second Half Goal 76%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bahia Montevideo City
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 14
Draws 8 6
Losses 8 9
Goals Scored 1.72 1.59
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 26, 2021 Copa Sudamericana
Bahia vs Montevideo City
2:4
Apr 22, 2021 Copa Sudamericana
Montevideo City vs Bahia
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bahia Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodrigo Nestor
2 Goals
Assists Leader Willian Jose
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Montevideo City Compare

Top Goalscorer Andrade L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bahia 34 / 100
Montevideo City 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bahia Montevideo City

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Montevideo City or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +29.5%
3.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11%
1.85
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Bahia attacking → ← attacking Montevideo City

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bahia scored in 93% of their last 29 games.

Montevideo City let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Bahia went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Montevideo City lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

47 Points in last 5 48
1.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.75
1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25