Sport Picks
Match Events
6'
6'
Rodrigo Nestor
Assist: Jean Lucas
10'
10'
Erick Pulga
Assist: Marcos Victor
43'
43'
Lucas Moura
Assist: Calleri J.
AI Match Summary
The Serie A game between Bahia and Sao Paulo finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Bahia.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
29%
20%
51%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Sao Paulo
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Bahia carry the better recent record into this one.
- Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Bahia Clean Sheet 20%
Sao Paulo Clean Sheet 11%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Bahia | Sao Paulo |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 10 | 7 |
| Draws | 9 | 10 |
| Losses | 10 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.45 | 1.04 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.41 | 1.18 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.25 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 29, 2026 Serie A
Bahia vs Sao Paulo
3:2
May 3, 2026 Serie A
Sao Paulo vs Bahia
2:2
Oct 26, 2025 Serie A
Sao Paulo vs Bahia
2:0
May 31, 2025 Serie A
Bahia vs Sao Paulo
2:1
Nov 6, 2024 Serie A
Bahia vs Sao Paulo
0:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Bahia Compare
Top Goalscorer Rodrigo Nestor
1 Goals Assists Leader Erick Pulga
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63
Sao Paulo Compare
Top Goalscorer Lucas Moura
1 Goals Assists Leader Bobadilla D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Bahia 32 / 100
Sao Paulo 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Bahia Sao Paulo
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Sao Paulo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.
Bahia found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (29 games).
Sao Paulo let in goals in 79% of their last 28 matches.
Bahia has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Bahia VS Sao Paulo
1.38 Goals Scored 0.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Bahia
(Home) 25 Oct
Santos
1 : 1 Bahia
18 Oct
Bahia
0 : 3 Flamengo RJ
11 Oct
Bahia
1 : 0 Mirassol
09 Oct
Palmeiras
1 : 0 Bahia
20 Sept
Athletico-PR
2 : 1 Bahia
Page 1 of 6
18 Oct
Bahia
0 : 3 Flamengo RJ
11 Oct
Bahia
1 : 0 Mirassol
14 Sept
Bahia
2 : 1 Remo
30 Aug
Bahia
3 : 2 Internacional
09 Aug
Bahia
0 : 0 Vasco
Page 1 of 3
Sao Paulo
(Away) 24 Oct
Mirassol
1 : 1 Sao Paulo
18 Oct
Sao Paulo
1 : 0 Vasco
11 Oct
Sao Paulo
2 : 1 Vitoria
08 Oct
Cruzeiro
2 : 0 Sao Paulo
02 Oct
Sao Paulo
1 : 2 Santos
Page 1 of 6
24 Oct
Mirassol
1 : 1 Sao Paulo
08 Oct
Cruzeiro
2 : 0 Sao Paulo
12 Sept
Palmeiras
2 : 0 Sao Paulo
09 Sept
Boca Juniors
1 : 0 Sao Paulo
23 Aug
Chapecoense-SC
1 : 0 Sao Paulo
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo RJ | 32 | 21 | 7 | 4 | 64:27 | 70 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 33 | 20 | 10 | 3 | 56:22 | 70 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 51:46 | 54 |
| 4 | Athletico-PR | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 50:38 | 54 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 33 | 15 | 9 | 9 | 52:42 | 54 |
| 6 | Bahia | 33 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 48:42 | 53 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 44:38 | 50 |
| 8 | Santos | 33 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 49:47 | 47 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 33 | 12 | 8 | 13 | 42:38 | 44 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 33 | 12 | 7 | 14 | 39:39 | 43 |
| 11 | Botafogo RJ | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 45:53 | 39 |
| 12 | Coritiba | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 38:50 | 39 |
| 13 | Vasco | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 39:45 | 38 |
| 14 | Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 35:46 | 38 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 37:45 | 37 |
| 16 | Internacional | 33 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 37:42 | 35 |
| 17 | Gremio | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 35:44 | 34 |
| 18 | Corinthians | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 34:42 | 33 |
| 19 | Remo | 33 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 36:51 | 29 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-SC | 32 | 4 | 9 | 19 | 32:66 | 21 |
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana 2027 (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B 2027 (Main)
