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Bahia vs Serrano

Brazil Brazil

Campeonato Baiano 2012
Bahia Logo

Bahia

3 - 2
FT
Serrano Logo

Serrano

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato Baiano 2012 game between Bahia and Serrano finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Bahia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Bahia
35%
Draws
29%
Serrano
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Bahia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

36% / Low Confidence
  • Bahia carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Bahia's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Regular Campeonato Baiano 2012 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Bahia here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Bahia Clean Sheet 16%
Serrano Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bahia Serrano
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 11 7
Draws 11 6
Losses 9 17
Goals Scored 1.55 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.39 1.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 29, 2014 Baiano
Bahia vs Serrano
1:0
Mar 27, 2014 Baiano
Serrano vs Bahia
1:1
Apr 1, 2012 Baiano
Bahia vs Serrano
3:2
Jan 29, 2012 Baiano
Serrano vs Bahia
1:3
Mar 13, 2011 Baiano
Bahia vs Serrano
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bahia 75 / 100
Serrano 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bahia Serrano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bahia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bahia's goal record stands at 84% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Serrano's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

Solid form: Bahia remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Scoring Trends

Bahia VS -
1.25 Goals Scored 0
2 Goals Conceded 0
100% Over 1.5 0%
88% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Bahia

(Home)
16 Aug
Chapecoense-SC
3 : 3
Bahia
09 Aug
Bahia
0 : 0
Vasco
30 Jul
Fluminense
0 : 0
Bahia
26 Jul
Bahia
1 : 1
Corinthians
21 Jul
Atletico-MG
1 : 1
Bahia
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Serrano

(Away)
13 Sept
Central SC
3 : 0
Serrano
06 Sept
Serrano
3 : 1
Treze PB
30 Aug
Estanciano EC
3 : 1
Serrano
16 Aug
Serrano
0 : 1
Goianesia
02 Aug
Goianesia
0 : 0
Serrano
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bahia 22 16 4 2 57:24 52
2 Vitoria 22 12 7 3 53:17 43
3 Feirense 22 11 6 5 37:25 39
4 Bahia de Feira 22 10 2 10 34:30 32
5 Vitoria da Conquista 22 9 5 8 28:26 32
6 Alagoinhas 22 7 10 5 31:24 31
7 Juazeiro 22 6 7 9 25:44 25
8 Juazeirense 22 6 6 10 21:35 24
9 Serrano 22 4 11 7 22:30 23
10 Fluminense de Feira 22 5 8 9 21:36 23
11 Camacari 22 5 7 10 26:39 22
12 Itabuna 22 2 5 15 20:45 11
Promotion - Campeonato Baiano 2012 (Play Offs)