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Bahrain vs Indonesia

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World Championship 2026 Bahrain National Stadium
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AI Match Summary

Bahrain play Indonesia in the World Championship 2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Bahrain averaged 0.93 goals scored and 1.64 conceded. Indonesia averaged 1.24 goals scored and 1.34 conceded. In past meetings, Bahrain won 2, Indonesia won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Mar 25, 2025 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.56 for Bahrain and 2.00 for Indonesia. This points to a Indonesia double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Bahrain
18%
Draws
46%
Indonesia
Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: Indonesia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Bahrain picked up more points recently compared to Indonesia.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.56 vs 2.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 89%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 48%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Bahrain Clean Sheet 10%
Indonesia Clean Sheet 22%
First Half Goal 57%
Second Half Goal 60%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bahrain Indonesia
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 8 11
Draws 4 6
Losses 16 12
Goals Scored 0.93 1.24
Goals Conceded 1.64 1.34
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 25, 2025 World Championship
Indonesia vs Bahrain
1:0
Oct 10, 2024 World Championship
Bahrain vs Indonesia
2:2
Feb 29, 2012 World Championship
Bahrain vs Indonesia
10:0
Sep 6, 2011 World Championship
Indonesia vs Bahrain
0:2
Jul 10, 2007 Asian Cup
Indonesia vs Bahrain
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bahrain Compare

Top Goalscorer Marhoon M.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.38
Avg xA / game 0.25

Indonesia Compare

Top Goalscorer Oratmangoen R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Struick R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bahrain 34 / 100
Indonesia 46 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bahrain Indonesia

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Indonesia or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +28.5%
3.57
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.2%
2.38
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Bahrain attacking → ← attacking Indonesia

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bahrain scored in 57% of their last 28 games.

Indonesia let in goals in 52% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Bahrain went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Indonesia lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

28 Points in last 5 39
0.50 Goals expected (xG) 2.00
2.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.63

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Iran1072119:823
2Uzbekistan1063114:721
3United Arab Emirates1043315:815
4Qatar1041517:2413
5Kyrgyzstan1022612:188
6North Korea100379:213
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1South Korea1064020:722
2Jordan1044216:816
3Iraq104339:915
4Oman103259:1411
5Palestine1024410:1310
6Kuwait100557:205
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Japan1072130:323
2Australia1054116:719
3Saudi Arabia103437:813
4Indonesia103349:2012
5China103077:209
6Bahrain101365:166