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Baia de Pemba vs Chingale de Tete - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Mozambique Mozambique

Mocambola
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Chingale de Tete in this Mocambola matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Chingale de Tete.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Baia de Pemba
15%
Draws
34%
Chingale de Tete
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Baia de Pemba

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Baia de Pemba have won more games recently than Chingale de Tete.
  • Win probability leans Baia de Pemba's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63%
Baia de Pemba Clean Sheet 20%
Chingale de Tete Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Baia de Pemba Chingale de Tete
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 9 5
Draws 8 9
Losses 11 14
Goals Scored 0.75 0.61
Goals Conceded 0.86 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 0.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 13, 2026 Mocambola
Baia de Pemba vs Chingale de Tete
1:2
Jul 1, 2026 Mocambola
Chingale de Tete vs Baia de Pemba
0:0
Oct 19, 2025 Mocambola
Chingale de Tete vs Baia de Pemba
1:1
Jun 30, 2025 Mocambola
Baia de Pemba vs Chingale de Tete
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Baia de Pemba 40 / 100
Chingale de Tete 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Baia de Pemba Chingale de Tete

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Baia de Pemba Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chingale de Tete's defensive record shows goals conceded in 68% of 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Recent resilience: Baia de Pemba stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Difficult form: Chingale de Tete registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Baia de Pemba VS Chingale de Tete
0.5 Goals Scored 0.25
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
25% Over 1.5 38%
13% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Baia de Pemba

(Home)
13 Oct
Baia de Pemba
1 : 2
Chingale de Tete
10 Oct
Baia de Pemba
1 : 0
UD Songo
13 Sept
ENH Vilankulo
2 : 0
Baia de Pemba
02 Sept
Baia de Pemba
2 : 1
Ferroviario Lichinga
25 Aug
Baia de Pemba
1 : 0
Ferroviario Nacala
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Chingale de Tete

(Away)
13 Oct
Baia de Pemba
1 : 2
Chingale de Tete
09 Oct
AD Pemba
1 : 0
Chingale de Tete
19 Sept
Chingale de Tete
1 : 0
Maxaquene
16 Sept
Chingale de Tete
0 : 1
Costa do Sol
02 Sept
Associacao Black Bulls
2 : 1
Chingale de Tete
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Associacao Black Bulls 20 13 6 1 30:11 45
2 Costa do Sol 20 12 4 4 28:12 40
3 Ferroviario Beira 21 9 7 5 23:17 34
4 Ferroviario Nampula 19 10 4 5 23:21 34
5 Ferroviario Maputo 20 8 5 7 15:11 29
6 Ferroviario Lichinga 19 8 5 6 16:15 29
7 UD Songo 20 6 10 4 21:16 28
8 Ferroviario Nacala 19 7 5 7 13:14 26
9 Baia de Pemba 19 5 7 7 11:14 22
10 ENH Vilankulo 19 4 9 6 21:19 21
11 AD Pemba 18 6 2 10 10:19 20
12 Sofala 21 4 6 11 10:24 18
13 Chingale de Tete 21 3 6 12 7:19 15
14 Maxaquene 20 1 8 11 8:24 11
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