Sport Picks
Baia de Pemba vs Desportivo de Nacala
Mozambique
Mocambola 2025 
AI Match Summary
Baia de Pemba host Desportivo de Nacala in the Mocambola 2025. Chances could be at a premium in this fixture. Recent numbers: Baia de Pemba at 0.5 goals for, 0.75 against; Desportivo de Nacala at 0.2 for, 0.6 against. Past meetings favor Baia de Pemba slightly — 1-1-3 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Dec 14, 2025, ending 0:0. xG projections (0.55 - 0.47) back Baia de Pemba to edge this. AI goal market prediction: Over 2.5, BTTS: GG.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
- Desportivo de Nacala haven't matched Baia de Pemba's recent run of results.
- Baia de Pemba are the model's pick here, at 40%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Baia de Pemba | Desportivo de Nacala |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 24 | 25 |
| Wins | 7 | 2 |
| Draws | 8 | 8 |
| Losses | 9 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.75 | 0.6 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 0.75 | 0.60 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sokapicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Sokapicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Desportivo de Nacala has conceded goals in 84% of their last 25 outings.
Baia de Pemba has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Desportivo de Nacala's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.
Baia de Pemba found the back of the net in 50% of recent matches (24 games).
Scoring Trends
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UD Songo | 22 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 50:13 | 57 |
| 2 | Associacao Black Bulls | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 35:26 | 39 |
| 3 | Ferroviario Beira | 23 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 19:13 | 37 |
| 4 | Ferroviario Lichinga | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 38:31 | 34 |
| 5 | Ferroviario Maputo | 23 | 7 | 12 | 4 | 25:18 | 33 |
| 6 | Baia de Pemba | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 24:21 | 32 |
| 7 | ENH Vilankulo | 24 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 22:21 | 31 |
| 8 | Costa do Sol | 23 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 18:18 | 31 |
| 9 | Ferroviario Nacala | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 16:17 | 31 |
| 10 | Chingale de Tete | 22 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 22:21 | 27 |
| 11 | Ferroviario Nampula | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 21:29 | 26 |
| 12 | Textafrica | 23 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 15:30 | 20 |
| 13 | Desportivo de Nacala | 20 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 13:31 | 12 |
| 14 | Desportivo Matola | 22 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 11:40 | 10 |